Western Diplomacy’s Hollow Words on Northern Ethiopia

Here is a brief explanation of the latest crisis in northern Ethiopa’s Tigray Region for people without much knowledge of the context. 

Western diplomacy has issued a statement (see below) that waxes pacifist with bothsidesism. A long list of rich countries offer their help to the parties in dispute, but their statement could not be more obstructive. They supposedly give their “full support” to the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (also known as the Pretoria Peace Agreement) from November 2, 2022, between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the leading force in the dictatorship that ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018. Yet they cannot bring themselves to unequivocally condemn the hardliners from the TPLF for just taking over Tigray with military force and launching a fierce crackdown on pro-peace Tigrayans. 

The most recent regional coup makers do claim to act in the spirit of the Pretoria peace agreement (never mind that it obliges them to disarm and demobilize as the very first step, which should have been completed over two years ago). They also point to the unfulfilled promise of returning “1 million IDPs” from what they refer to as “Western Tigray”. But firstly, this figure is grossly inflated (the real figure is several times less). And secondly, they never talk about coexistence with Amhara in the contested territories, which is key to peacefully returning Tigrayan IDPs. Recently, interim leader of the Tigray region, Getachew Reda finally admitted to political intrigues in keeping IDPs hostage, impeding their safe return, to use them as political pawns. This is the sad, yet well known reality on the ground.

The continued use of the term “Western Tigray” about what has long been known in Ethiopia as Welkait, shows that their goal is reestablishing the pre-2020 reign of Tigray-ethnonationalism in the contested territories, perhaps using the Tigrayan IDPs as foot soldiers. Such a violent take over will not be acceptable to the parties involved and would lead to more conflict. Moreover, the peace agreement does not actually determine the future status of Welkait. That is to be determined within the laws and legal framework of Ethiopia.

Some reports also suggest neighboring Eritrea is working in coordination with the TPLF faction that ousted the Transitional Interim Administration. Further investigation is needed on the matter, and of course it marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, one that could lead to interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. 

So Western diplomacy calling for “engaging in urgent dialogue” is hollow. it pales in comparison to the gravity of the situation. This is insulting and not the behavior of helpful peacemakers. It is appeasement that encourages more instability in the region.