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Kenya steps into disputes between Ethiopia and Somalia, proposing a regional maritime treaty to address concerns by landlocked countries via commercial channels. The issue at hand is an MoU struck between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a self-declared independent state that broke with Somalia officially in 1991 but still lacks international recognition. The deal would grant Ethiopia access to ports and allow them to build a naval base on Somaliland’s coast. In return Ethiopia would be the first state to recognize Somaliland.
Somalia, which still maintains Somaliland as part of its territory, strongly opposes the agreement. This has raised concerns about potential instability in the already fragile Horn of Africa region.
Kenya’s proposed treaty, developed in collaboration with Djibouti and the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), aims to establish a clear framework for landlocked countries to access ports commercially within the region. This could potentially offer Ethiopia the port access they seek without infringing upon Somalia’s territorial claims. The Kenya plan aims to diffuse tensions.
The deal comes after a recent trip by Somalia’s President to the Kenyan capital of Nairobi. It offers Somalia an offramp, but no doubt the proposal will be a hard sell in Addis Ababa and Hargeisa, where both parties would feel they have more to offer each other than what they could gain by the Kenyan proposal.
The complex set of relations between the nations of the Horn and the larger Middle East make a comprehensive regional maritime access for landlocked countries difficult, something Ethiopia would find cumbersome, given its economic ambitions and security needs.
Nonetheless, Ethiopia rarely if ever ignores regional diplomatic efforts. It is expected both Somalia and Ethiopia will be considering the proposal. Kenyan officials are encouraging leaders from both nations to meet and discuss a path forward. Time is seen as a critical factor, as the militant group al-Shabaab could exploit the disagreement to further destabilize Somalia’s government.
