Ethiopia: Peace Agreement Threatened By Political Intrigue and Divisions in Tigray

In his recent trip to Addis Ababa, U.S Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer said, “the United States views the progress towards peace and reconciliation in Ethiopia positively, following the implementation of a cease-fire in the Tigray region 20 months ago”. Highlighting steps forward such as the return of internally displaced persons and reduced human rights abuses in Tigray, Ambassador Hammer remained optimistic. However, he acknowledged ongoing conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions, underscoring U.S. readiness to support peace efforts through dialogue. 

According to the State Department, Ambassador Hammer’s recent visit to Ethiopia for the African Union’s review of the Pretoria Agreement emphasized the importance of continued commitment to peace initiatives and accountability for past atrocities. 

Despite the unbroken peace agreement however, there continues to be challenges. These include the long-delayed disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of the Tigray People’s liberation Front (TPLF) rebel fighters, and the return of IDPs to contested territories between Amhara and Tigray regions. 

The letter of the Pretoria agreement excludes preconditions on DDR, explicitly stating, “the parties agree to finalize the overall disarmament of rebel combatants, including light arms within 30 days from the signing of this Agreement”. Furthermore, it adds, “the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has only one defense force”, meaning no other groups or political parties can garrison troops. 

Much as DDR is highlighted extensively in the peace agreement, the return of IDPs is also critical. Authorities in the Tigray region contend, IDPs are being prevented from returning by Amhara militia. However, in recent months the federal government as well as the Amhara regional administration say they ‘disbanded irregular forces in contested regions’, paving the way for the return of IDPs from Tigray. This has been a political minefield to navigate, especially given the rise of Amhara nationalism as it pertains to contested territories. The Fano insurrection in Amhara is partly motivated by suspicions of collusion between the Federal government and the TPLF. The delay in DDR for TPLF forces has served as an excuse for continued militancy in Amhara region. Nonetheless, in the past two months several thousand IDPs have return to Raya-Alamata, in addition to Tselemt. More are expected to return in the months ahead.

By procrastinating DDR, the TPLF continues to test the patience of the federal government. Now 22 months into the peace agreement, the group’s leader has come out to brag about the continued existence of a large fighting force. In a recent interview on Radio France Internationale, Debretsion Gebremichael, leader of the TPLF said, “We cannot disarm and demobilize while Eritrean and Amhara forces occupy out territory”. His party has not provided a clearly outlined document or map as evidence for this claim, however.  The AU observer mission has also failed to verify the claim.

Divisions within TPLF have recently fractured the organization. Withstanding internal feuds was much easier when the party was involved in an all-out war of “us vs them”, but now things are murky, particularly following the regional administration’s glaring failure to deliver on basic governance issues. The public has become frustrated. A recent announcement proclaimed stepped up efforts against rising crime and illegal mining, a good portion of which is the work of its very own commanders. If this cry for law enforcement is genuine, many believe it will mean the interim government and the cryptic TPLF party leadership are on a collision course. 

A clear line has emerged between those who support the interim regional administration led by Getachew Reda, and those behind TPLF’s old guard who still talk in the language of “struggle for liberation” and “democratic centralism”, putting the survival of the party ahead of the well-being of the region’s people. 

The federal government has maintained restraint despite provocative acts by authorities in Tigray. For instance, in June, returning IDPs in Alamata were accompanied by rabble-rousers, brandishing guns, and flying TPLF’s flag, in a deliberate attempt to stoke more tensions with Amhara neighbors. It elicited reactive protests by residents as well as some clashes. Thankfully the incident did not escalate into widespread communal violence. 

The move was deliberately designed to provoke. Behind closed doors the federal government is said to have provided stern warnings, however similar strategies of stoking tension are still ongoing. For instance, the TPLF is said to be calling up its cadres for a general convention, despite Ethiopia’s electoral commission prohibiting unregistered political parties from holding such events. It is to be recalled, similar disregard for election laws by organizing regional polls in September 2020 played a part in mounting apprehensions and eventual war in November of that year.

All of this could of course jeopardize the peace agreement, which brought back calm after two years of devastating war. Banks are open, air travel is normal, electric power is back up, and schools are open. This month high school seniors took their university entrance examinations. All of this bodes well, and is worth sustaining and building upon. This continued recovery of the Tigray region is what is most needed, but reckless and tragic political intrigues threaten to wreck things again.