Eritrea has expelled Sudanese Charge d’Affaires Khalid Abbas From Asmara

In a move that underscores deteriorating relations with Port Sudan based government led by General Al Burhan, Eritrea has expelled Sudanese Charge d’Affaires Khalid Abbas, giving him 72 hours to leave without providing reasons. This unexpected move has raised concerns about its implications for regional alliances, especially as Sudan’s government loses one of its allies in the region amidst accusations of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

On Wednesday, Eritrean authorities gave Abbas 72 hours to leave the country, offering no explanation for the decision. The expulsion comes at a time when Sudan and Ethiopia were improving relations following Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Port Sudan. Previously, Sudanese military leaders had criticized Ethiopia for allegedly backing the RSF, but signs of reconciliation with Addis Ababa have recently emerged.

Asmara’s decision also coincides with a visit by traditional leaders from eastern Sudan, where Eritrea plays a significant role due to cultural ties. Social media recently showed Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki with these leaders, hinting at efforts to mediate regional tensions.

Political analyst Mohamed Latif noted that the expulsion represents a surprising shift in Eritrean policy. He speculated that Afwerki might be reassessing his stance on political Islam and its role in the ongoing Sudanese conflict. Additionally, Dr. Salah Jalal, an Umma Party leader, suggested that the expulsion could be related to Eritrea’s concerns over espionage and recruitment activities by the Sudanese.

Eritrea’s decision comes amid reports that Sudanese forces have enlisted fighters from the Tigray people’s Liberation Front (TPLF), exacerbating regional instability and affecting relations between Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea.

Jalal, who maintains historical ties with President Afwerki, revealed that Asmara had preceded the expulsion of the Sudanese charge d’affaires by removing the Russian ambassador from Asmara the previous week. He hinted at a connection between the two events, stating that the expulsion of the ambassador might prompt Port Sudan to seek answers. He also suggested that the current shift in Eritrean stance could be an opportunity for the country to realign with civilian forces or the RSF if acted upon promptly.

According to report Asharq Al-Awsat, a London based Arabic news site, ‘this emerging rift between the Eritrean regime and Sudan’s Burhan will likely mean Asmara may be planning to increase support for Eastern Sudan’s Beja tribes who have a historically rocky relationship with Sudan’s central government’. An upcoming planned summit in Addis Ababa between the UAE which has backed the RSF, Burhan and Ethiopian leader Abiy is expected to take place in Addis Ababa.

The complicated nature of relations between Horn of Africa countries has seen an ever-evolving rollercoaster of alliances and rivalries, in addition to continued involvement by gulf states. Mohamed Latif sated, “this is the new normal countries must adapt to, and pivot as needed”.