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Introduction
The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea have become zones of escalating tensions, where economic, military, and diplomatic ambitions intersect. This strategic region, connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa, plays a key role in international relations. While its geopolitical importance continues to grow, it is also a battleground for influence, where regional and global powers compete for dominance. The isolation of Eritrea’s regime under Isaias Afwerki, Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, and the increasing involvement of Gulf powers—including Saudi Arabia—further complicate an already fragile balance.
Given these dynamics, the future of the region remains uncertain. Without a concerted diplomatic approach and greater cooperation, an escalation with potentially devastating consequences cannot be ruled out.
Context: A Coveted Red Sea
The Red Sea is a major commercial crossroads and a focal point of geopolitical rivalries. Eritrea, with its strategic port of Assab, and Djibouti, which controls the southern entrance to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, play crucial roles in global oil transport. Somalia, for its part, boasts an extensive coastline along the Gulf of Aden—an asset that could strengthen its regional influence and enhance its role in global maritime trade.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey have expanded their presence in the region by establishing military bases and making substantial investments. The competition for control over this critical maritime corridor is not only a concern for these nations but also has significant implications for Ethiopia. Despite being landlocked, Ethiopia remains a key regional player with a vested interest in Red Sea access.
Eritrea: A Regime Entrapped by Its Obsession with Tigray
Under Isaias Afwerki’s rule, Eritrea remains one of the world’s most closed states and among Africa’s most repressive regimes, characterized by widespread repression and strict control over information. After more than 30 years of authoritarian rule, the country enforces indefinite military service and prohibits any form of organized opposition, thereby consolidating the regime’s grip on power.
Asmara’s regime is built on a nationalist ideology, fueled by a historical hostility toward the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Tigray, which it perceives as an existential threat. This rivalry has led to massive militarization and the prolongation of compulsory conscription.
The 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, signed to end the conflict between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, was viewed by Afwerki as an acknowledgment of the TPLF and Tigray. Considering this treaty a challenge to his regional influence, he hardened his stance toward Ethiopia and continues to perceive the so-called “Tigrayan threat” as an obstacle to regional stability.
Recent internal divisions within the TPLF—driven by political tensions and regional dynamics—present an opportunity for Asmara to extend its influence. If the situation deteriorates further, it could reignite tensions in the region and pose an even greater threat to the fragile stability of the Horn of Africa.
Abiy Ahmed’s Diplomatic Actions: Reforms and Challenges
Since assuming office, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has profoundly reshaped Ethiopian diplomacy, seeking to ease tensions in a region marked by both internal and external conflicts. His most notable initiative was the 2018 peace agreement with Eritrea, which ended two decades of a cold war between the two nations and earned him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. While this agreement paved the way for a fragile reconciliation, it did not resolve key disputes—particularly Ethiopia’s quest for access to the sea.
At the same time, Abiy Ahmed has sought to reposition Ethiopia on the international stage, strengthening ties with Gulf powers. However, his diplomatic efforts face internal challenges, including ethnic conflicts and geopolitical rivalries that extend beyond Ethiopia’s borders, turning the region into a battleground for political and strategic control over maritime routes and resources.
Key Players: Conflicting Interests
Recently, Saudi Arabia proposed a multi-billion-dollar investment in the port of Assab—a strategic project that could redefine geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa. This Saudi initiative aims to bolster its influence in the Red Sea while simultaneously shoring up Eritrea’s regime against Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions. Such a development could further complicate Abiy Ahmed’s efforts to secure direct sea access and significantly impact the regional balance of power.
Abiy’s agreements with Gulf powers—particularly the UAE—could provide critical leverage to counterbalance the rising influence of Asmara and Riyadh. As Ethiopia continues its pursuit of direct sea access, it must navigate a complex landscape of alliances and geopolitical interests at both regional and global levels.
Although Abiy Ahmed’s peace agreement with Eritrea temporarily eased tensions, the Afwerki regime remains firm in denying Ethiopia access to Eritrean ports, despite Ethiopia’s diplomatic overtures. Control over Eritrean ports—particularly Assab—remains a major point of contention, threatening to reignite regional tensions.
Towards Reconciliation or a New Escalation?
Mounting tensions—with Ethiopia, internal dissidents, and Eritrea’s neighbors—could pave the way for internal shifts within the Asmara regime. However, an insurgency or direct Ethiopian intervention could exacerbate the situation, with unpredictable consequences for regional stability.
Abiy Ahmed’s role as both a reformer and a mediator will be crucial. His ability to navigate internal challenges while maintaining constructive dialogue with neighboring states could be the key to preventing further escalation and transforming tensions into opportunities for peace and development.
Conclusion: The Future of the Region in Limbo
The current situation remains volatile, with regional stability hanging in the balance. Under Abiy Ahmed’s leadership, Ethiopia continues to play a central diplomatic role in the pursuit of peace, but geopolitical rivalries and the issue of maritime access complicate the country’s future.
The region’s fate will depend on whether key stakeholders can overcome their differences and prioritize peaceful solutions. However, as long as the Afwerki regime persists in its repressive policies, stability will remain elusive. Abiy Ahmed’s role as a reformer will be critical in paving the way for lasting reconciliation.
The international community must rally to support these efforts, advocating for democratic reforms and an end to policies of hostility. Without genuine internal transformation in Eritrea, the region risks remaining trapped in a cycle of violence and suffering—further delaying the prospects of lasting peace and sustainable regional development.
