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Deepening rifts between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the interim administration of the Tigray region in Ethiopia have led to significant political shifts, culminating in the displacement of TPLF hardliners from the regional capital, Mekelle.
For months, the TPLF’s old guard and the interim regional government, led by Getachew Reda, have engaged in a blame game over the region’s botched recovery, marked by military defeats, what many claim to be “loss of territory”, and a breakdown in law and order. These tensions have roots in the discord that emerged in 2019 when the newly formed Prosperity Party, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed embarked on a series of reforms that threatened the TPLF’s grip on power. Hostilities then ultimately led to a devastating war that claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands is what has come to be referred to as the “Tigray War”.
The Pretoria Peace Agreement was welcome news, as it ended the war. It also served as somewhat of a face-saving surrender for the TPLF, averting its total collapse, potentially leaving an unpredictable and perhaps even more dangerous power vacuum. Since then, however, internal frictions within the region’s long time ruling party have multiplied, with divisions deepening, especially after the Ethiopian Electoral Board refused to reinstate the TPLF, demanding its re-registration as a new political party.
Faced with diminishing prospects for regaining power, the TPLF’s old guard now appears to be relinquishing control of regional capital Mekelle to Getachew Reda’s interim administration, which is gaining support from key districts across central, eastern, and southern parts of the Tigray region, chiefly among the young.
Meanwhile, Debretsion Gebremichael, head of TPLF’s other more senior faction, seems to be consolidating power in Shire, the region’s second-largest city. Shire’s proximity to lucrative gold mines, currently under the control of TPLF warlords and generals aligned with Debretsion adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
Interim leader Getachew Reda accused his adversaries of engaging in the illicit gold trade. In a recent meeting with his supporters Getachew said, “Those who accuse me of falsehoods are involved in facilitating the export of gold from Tigray to the Gulf States via Eritrea” -— which has also relied on its own gold exports to finance itself despite years of Western sanctions.
Before the war, licensed miners in Tigray sold gold to the National Bank of Ethiopia. Since the conflict began however, much of the region’s gold has been smuggled out. Other more urgent political priorities overshadowed the issue, but there is now growing concern the illicit trade may fuel yet another round of conflict. Any attempt by the interim administration, backed by the federal government to intervene could spark further violence due to the political nature of the mining interests.
As public dissatisfaction grows, pressure is building on the region’s government to utilize its resources to provide adequate services and to punish criminals. Many schools in the region remain shuttered. The vice chair of the Tigray Regional Board of Education reported that out of 2,492 schools ranging from kindergarten to high school, 1,835 are fully operational. However, approximately 500 schools are currently being used as arms depots and garrison to house the region’s large number of idled fighters. This despite nearly two years of relative peace.
It is in this context the town of Shire emerged as a stronghold for the TPLF’s hardliners, as cadres continue trade blame for the region’s challenges and race to gather support for what appears to be another round of struggle, which so far has been limited to public rallies and heated public meetings organized by each side.
Considering the TPLF’s intolerant political culture and history of armed conflict, recent developments could trigger another wave of violence, especially since the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of TPLF fighters has not been fully realized. The situation in Ethiopia’s Tigray region remains unstable, raising significant concerns about the possibility of renewed conflict, a scenario feared by many in the international community, particularly the peace deal signatories like the African Union and the United States.
