The Geopolitical Landscape of Somalia: Navigating Rivalries and Alliances

Introduction

In recent years, Somalia has emerged as a focal point in the evolving geopolitical landscape influenced by Red Sea dynamics, Gulf rivalries, and the complex interrelations within the Horn of Africa. This paradigm shift was notably accelerated by Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, a move that has exacerbated pre-existing divisions among regional actors and intensified their alignments. The current geopolitical context indicates that Somalia’s internal challenges are now intricately linked with external rivalries, posing implications that extend beyond its borders.

Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland: A New Axis Emerges

The recognition of Somaliland by Israel has catalyzed a growing alliance involving the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Israel, and Somaliland, primarily oriented around maritime access and security collaboration in the strategically vital Red Sea corridor. This development did not occur in isolation; it coincided with a deepening rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the conflict in Yemen, which has ripple effects in the Horn of Africa. As Saudi Arabia and the UAE recalibrate their regional strategies, Somalia finds itself caught in a power struggle, with its consolidated agency increasingly undermined.

Counter Alignments: A Response from Traditional Allies

In response to the emerging UAE-Israel-Somaliland axis, a counter-alignment has taken shape involving Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar. Their intensified engagement with Mogadishu has aimed to bolster Somalia’s federal government under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. While Somalia’s leadership seeks strategic partnerships, such alignments occur amid fractures in the country’s internal cohesion, rendering it more susceptible to external influence.

Egypt’s Strategic Engagement

Egypt’s role is particularly noteworthy as it seeks to leverage its relationship with Somalia to reinforce its broader strategy toward Ethiopia. Amid rising tensions over the Nile and regional influence, Cairo has ramped up security cooperation with Mogadishu, framing it as support for Somali sovereignty. Nevertheless, this assistance is motivated by Egypt’s objective to counter Ethiopia’s position and diminish its influence in Somalia, raising questions about the implications for Somalia’s internal stability.

Deteriorating Security Situations Amid External Support

Despite securing defense agreements with various nations, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt, Somalia’s security landscape continues to deteriorate. The operational capacity of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission has not improved significantly, and Al Shabaab remains resilient. This disparity between diplomatic gestures and practical security outcomes prompts concerns about whether Somalia’s expanding partnerships are fostering genuine state consolidation or merely increasing dependency on foreign powers.

Complications in Diplomacy: Navigating Contradictory Alliances

Somalia’s leadership is confronted with the challenge of navigating its foreign policy amidst competing alliances. Recent meetings between President Mohamud and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi exemplify both collaboration and underlying friction. During their discussions, they emphasized that only littoral states should govern Red Sea security—a statement interpreted as a direct rebuke to Ethiopia’s aspirations. Ironically, just prior, Mohamud had focused on fostering dialogue with Ethiopian leadership, highlighting the complex diplomatic balancing act Somalia is compelled to perform.

Tensions Embodied in Diplomatic Remarks

An incident during a joint press conference further accentuated the hierarchical aspects of the Cairo-Mogadishu relationship. President el-Sisi referred to Somalia as a “textbook failed state,” which underscores Egypt’s positioning as a patron rather than an equal partner. Such remarks emphasize the precarious nature of Somalia’s sovereignty in light of external pressures.

The Dangers of a Fragmented Foreign Policy

Somalia’s approach of swiftly pivoting between rival blocs represents a potential strategic miscalculation that could undermine its long-term interests. Hedging can be effective in international relations, but it relies on a stable domestic foundation—something currently lacking in Somalia. This strategy may not only jeopardize Somali sovereignty but also facilitate deeper dependency on foreign influences.

Alienating Neighboring Ethiopia

In this geopolitical labyrinth, Somalia’s decisions to alienate neighboring Ethiopia in favor of external backing pose significant risks. An evolving perception of Somalia as a proxy region in broader geopolitical rivalries could further destabilize its internal landscape. For instance, Somalia’s recent rejection of Ethiopia’s participation in a naval exercise was widely viewed as politically motivated, worsening relations at a time when cooperation is crucial.

Regional Implications: A Volatile Landscape

The intertwining of Red Sea geopolitics, Gulf rivalries, and unresolved inter-state tensions creates an unstable environment for the Horn of Africa. Somalia’s current trajectory, characterized by oscillating alliances and external engagement, risks exacerbating this volatility. As regional actors pursue their agendas, Somalia may be relegated to a battleground for proxy competitions, undermining the potential for enduring cooperation in the region.

Challenges for Ethiopia

For Ethiopia, Somalia’s emerging fragility compounds regional tensions, as the potential for Somali alignment with adversarial states threatens its southern border. The stakes become even higher with the prospect of Somalia facilitating alliances involving Egypt and Eritrea, which represent strategic challenges for Addis Ababa.

Conclusion: The Path Forward for Somalia

The current geopolitical trends suggest that Somalia is becoming increasingly entwined in external power struggles while its internal foundations remain fragile. Swift diplomatic maneuvers are proving more reactive than strategic, thereby heightening risks rather than generating lasting stability. Transitioning from short-term gains to an authentic, coherent foreign policy is imperative. Absent a unified internal front and balanced regional approach, Somalia’s course could undermine not just its sovereignty, but the potential for sustainable peace and cooperation across the Horn of Africa.

For more insights on the geopolitical dynamics affecting Somalia, visit Al Jazeera or learn about regional security challenges from RSDI.