Despite Somaliland’s successful establishment as an independent democracy since 1991, the G7’s strong stance supporting Somalia’s claims over Somaliland in the MoU has dealt a significant blow to the former British protectorate. This setback follows earlier indications from British officials hinting at the UK’s potential recognition of Somaliland, given its strategic significance at the entrance to the Red Sea, with the major port of Berbera.

The G7 communique, issued during a meeting of foreign ministers in Naples struck a softer tone, but raised concerns among officials, tying the UK to the contentious issue. The statement urges dialogue between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland to prevent further escalation, but critics argue it interferes with sovereign decisions.

This diplomatic tension highlights broader geopolitical complexities, including military efforts against Houthi insurgents in the Red Sea. Some attribute the US’s stance to past support for Somalia’s claims during Barack Obama’s presidency, while others suggest influence from US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar’s advocacy against Somaliland recognition.

Meanwhile, British MPs’ recent visit to Somaliland garnered support for the unrecognized state, praised as a beacon of democracy in the region. Conservative MP Alexander Stafford condemned the G7’s intervention, emphasizing the need for respect for sovereign decisions.

Former UK Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson, a key advocate for Somaliland recognition, criticized the G7’s stance, calling for a departure from failed policies and a recognition of Somaliland’s democratic achievements.

Amidst these diplomatic tensions, the contrast between Somalia’s instability and Somaliland’s democratic progress is starkly evident. While Somaliland prepares for upcoming elections, Somalia continues to grapple with governance challenges, emphasizing the divergent paths of the two entities.

Despite the mixed reactions in Somaliland, the government of Somalia has welcomed the G7 communique, further exacerbating tensions between the two entities.

The roots of this international dispute trace back to Somaliland’s quest for independence in 1991, following years of persecution and ethnic tensions within the union with Somalia. With its strategic location and vital port facilities, Somaliland’s recognition holds significance in addressing regional security challenges, including Houthi threats to shipping lanes.

However, Ethiopia’s possible recognition of Somaliland, driven by its need for port access, has sparked diplomatic tensions with Somalia. While Western countries await African leadership on Somaliland recognition, Ethiopia’s decision was expected to catalyze a shift in attitudes.

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Speaking at a conference on regional security in the Horn of Africa, Abdulaziz reiterated Ethiopia’s dedication to the MoU. He emphasized the potential benefits of Ethiopian access to sea outlets through collaboration with Somalia, a country with a coastline stretching over 3,000 kilometers.

Abdulaziz characterized Mogadishu’s objections as a “hiccup,” suggesting they are aimed at diverting attention from internal political challenges. Despite this, he underscored Ethiopia’s commitment to regional integration and urged cooperation against terrorist groups and human traffickers.

Abdulaziz called on neighboring countries to prioritize collaboration and peace, highlighting Ethiopia’s significant contributions to peacekeeping efforts in Sudan and Somalia. He also cautioned against the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia, emphasizing the potential risks to Ethiopia and the broader region.

The MoU, signed on January 1, 2024, has sparked considerable debate, particularly with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasizing the critical nature of sea access for Ethiopia. This stance has heightened tensions in the Horn of Africa. Nonetheless, Abdulaziz remains optimistic about the prospects for cooperation and mutual growth between Ethiopia and Somalia.

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Centered on the Berbera port in Somaliland, the deal follows Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed breaking the silence on Red Sea access for his nation in October of 2023. At the time his statements had raised concerns in the region. Berbera, situated on the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden, serves as an African gateway to the Red Sea and the entrance to the Suez Canal. It is also the site where Ethiopia’s rich cattle and animal livestock resources are exported to the Middle East, albeit mostly in illegal trade. Getting control of its own ports will allow Ethiopia to better manage this trade.

Presently, Ethiopia heavily depends on Djibouti, its neighboring country, for most of its maritime trade. “We have now reached an agreement with our Somaliland counterparts, and a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was formally signed today,” stated Abiy during the signing ceremony held in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, alongside Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi.

President Abdi announced that, as a component of the accord, Ethiopia is set to become the inaugural nation to officially acknowledge Somaliland as an independent state soon. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) facilitates Ethiopia’s entry into commercial maritime activities at the port of Berbera. It also paves the way in granting access to a naval base on the Red Sea through a leasing arrangement, revealed Redwan Hussien, Abiy’s National Security Adviser. Additionally, Somaliland is slated to acquire a share in the state-owned Ethiopian Airlines Group, although specific details were not disclosed, as stated by Hussien.

Despite declaring autonomy from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland has yet to achieve broad international recognition. For Its part The Republic of Somalia maintains that Somaliland is part of its territory. Last week, Somalia’s SONNA state media agency announced that, with Djibouti taking the lead in mediation, Somalia and Somaliland had agreed to restart discussions aimed at resolving their long-standing disagreements.

Ethiopia, the most populous landlocked country in the world, lost direct access to the sea in 1993 after Eritrea declared independence, leading to three-decades of fraught relations. Since then, Ethiopia has primarily relied on Djibouti for its trade activities. However, in 2018 a peace agreement with Eritrea promised to rekindle ties, but relations between Asmara and Addis Ababa cooled visible in 2023.

Given the circumstance, Somaliland is an attractive option for Ethiopia’s port ambitions. It is geographically accessible to Ethiopia’s mainland, but more importantly, this de facto autonomous region, which declared “the restoration of its independence from Somalia” in May 1991 could be amenable to Ethiopia in return for security assistance and recognition of its vaunted statehood. So far Somaliland has only received recognition by Taiwan, itself a semi-autonomous region of The People’s Republic of China. It maintains diplomatic missions in seven countries, most notably Ethiopia. Somaliland has been relatively successful and most importantly peaceful. It has managed all its affairs independently since about 1993 and has become self-reliant in many ways. It holds elections, has its own currency, and by regional standards, its telecom and banking sectors are notable.

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