Full disclosure: I’m a co-founder of  QRB Labs, the first company to introduce Bitcoin mining to the country.  We’ve been quietly working since 2021 to do this the “right way” against tremendous odds.  But this post is not our company’s story.  It’s a skin-in-the-game opinion about how this industry should evolve for the benefit of the country. To highlight the good it can do. But also the risk of bad, and ugly.

The Good

First let’s talk about the positive. Energy in Ethiopia and Bitcoin mining are a match made in heaven. 

In Ethiopia, electricity generation capacity is growing very rapidly. From 2GW in 2020 to over 10GW in the next couple of years. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (which I’ve written about before) is the biggest and most famous step in that growth, but there are many projects contributing to it. All of course phenomenally good. Indeed, practically nothing is better for economic growth and broadly improving lives than electrification.  For comparison, the average Ethiopian has 1/50th the electricity of an American. So, until we get to 100GW at least, another 1000% growth, increasing generation is unquestionably necessary. 

But there’s a catch. It is extremely difficult and expensive to deliver that energy to users. In the case of Ethiopia, some estimate that  $10B of investment and years of hard work are needed for transmission and distribution to catch up to generation. In the meantime, up to half of the generated energy remains unused. Which means the investment in generation takes longer to pay for itself. Meanwhile how do you finance the transmission and distribution? It’s a huge chicken and egg problem, and it’s unavoidable when there is rapid growth.  

In more developed countries, capacity may not be doubling or quadrupling but a similar problem exists with solar and wind power. Huge investments in supply are needed, but the demand may not match up with the supply, since consumption peaks don’t line up perfectly with the times when the sun shines or the wind blows.  Whether caused by the difference between the time of generation and consumption, or by the distance, this is the problem of “stranded energy“.

But what if there was a way to make money from stranded energy? In Ethiopia, this revenue could help accelerate electrification! That’s where Bitcoin comes in:   

“the competitive dynamics of Bitcoin mining are such that it shifts in time and space to the lowest available cost of electricity. This occurs not just by deploying hardware to various locations, but also by turning miners on or off instantly. This flexible demand-side support makes mining the ideal customer to balance variable supply….”  from “The Dynamics of Bitcoin Mining” by yours truly.

Thus the energy demand profile of data centers that host high energy computations makes them the perfect customer for Ethiopia’s stranded energy. Bitcoin even more so than other data applications because: 

• Bitcoin mining is location agnostic. It doesn’t matter if it runs in Antarctica or the Sahara as long as it’s connected to the Internet. 
• It’s also time agnostic.  Each hash computation is independent of the previous one. You can mine 24 hours a day, 12 hours a day, at random times. Of course miners, in order to be profitable, must be very good at making the complex trade offs between between energy cost and hardware utilization. But they don’t inherently need 24×7 power. 
• Further, contrary to common perception, it doesn’t actually need very much bandwidth. The entire blockchain is still barely more than half a terabyte! 
• And equally importantly, it’s all public data. The entire world can see all the inputs to the miners. So there’s no data sovereignty, legal information jurisdiction or cyber security issue.
• Mining is purely infrastructure for running computers. There’s no link between the locations of the miners and the users of Bitcoin. So Bitcoin mining doesn’t depend on local regulations about money and financial services, legality of “cryptocurrencies” etc. 

For traditional data centers hosting say streaming video, social media or corporate IT,  cheap electricity is nice to have, but they also require some combination of high bandwidth, low latency, and a compatible legal system for privacy, copyright, finance etc. These are all areas where it is presently tough for Ethiopia to compete globally — to put it mildly. But Bitcoin mining has in principle no disadvantage running in Ethiopia. 

Further, Ethiopia’s electricity generation mix is over 98% renewable. And even the 2% that isn’t is largely off-grid. So for a data center in Ethiopia, the energy is pretty much 100% “green” hydroelectricity. This is very desirable for the Bitcoin community. Bitcoin arguably doesn’t have to be green, any more than ice cream or football. In fact proof of work is one of the most noble uses of energy in the world. But Bitcoin has a lot of enemies who, as I have written about before on this blog. hypocritically or ignorantly use energy as an attack vector.  So “greening” mining is good for Bitcoin globally, and Ethiopia is perfect for that.

So there you have it.  The good is amazing.  Accelerating electrification for economic development of Africa. Geographic diversification and greening of Bitcoin mining.  That is literally the mission statement of QRB Labs. And also why Ethiopia and Bitcoin mining are truly a match made in heaven.

The Bad

But an electricity grid is a very complex beast. You can have too much energy in one place and too little in another at the same time.  When you have too much, it’s  a waste. And where there’s too little, consumers suffer outages which have negative economic and other consequences. In addition, both excess and shortage can cause costly damage to infrastructure. The best way to balance that is to manage the demand, through price and quantity allocation.

In the case of Ethiopia, while the people at the power company are dedicated to doing the right thing, historically it has not had the independence to manage pricing and demand as it needs to. By contrast, the airline, even though it is also state owned, has a long history of independence, allowing it to mange routes, schedules and prices on a purely commercial basis. This allows it to succeed in an extremely competitive and complex international industry.  But electricity prices have historically been dictated by politics.  Thus, when it comes to the relationship between the energy producer and Bitcoin miners, they don’t have the full flexibility to achieve true win-win pricing.  Consumer utility pricing is understandably more difficult to change. But at the wholesale level, the producer should be allowed to make stranded energy cheap, and conversely to charge higher prices where there’s lots of demand, whether it is from data centers, factories or households.  

Without modernized pricing from the supplier, the risk is that Bitcoin miners who don’t particularly care about the long term of the country can rush in  with demand in the wrong places, and destabilize the grid. Not because they are particularly evil or greedy. But just like water flows to the bottom of a valley, Bitcoin miners will go to where they can get energy at a good price. In this almost perfectly competitive industry, the purest embodiment of survival of the fittest, the typical buyer can’t afford to think for the seller.

The only solution is incentive compatible pricing. Rational, non-political, and based on supply and demand. Further, it is crucial that the pricing not be based on the industry, or what the energy is being used for. Electricity is fungible. So price discrimination by type of application never works well. If one industry  gets lower rates than another, it creates perverse incentives, where one will disguise itself as the other, and cause complexity in enforcement. This is also true for Bitcoin mining. Instead, energy should be commercially  negotiated based on quantity, location and time. Let the buyers find their niche. In a fair rational environment, Bitcoin demand will naturally stabilize and benefit the grid, and  monetize excess capacity to help long term electrification. And when the country’s transmission and distribution infrastructure is fully developed, when industrial and consumer demand can use all of the electricity being generated, then Bitcoin miners will not be able to pay the same price as factories or households. We should be happy to declare mission accomplished and look for cheap power somewhere else.

Another potential Bad is that Bitcoin mining can easily get politicized in Ethiopia. People who don’t understand the subtle win-win dynamics may complain that Bitcoin is taking power from the people. Or based on superficial nonsense about “cryptocurrencies”, especially in a bull market, assume Bitcoin miners are rich and should pay high prices. Such interference risks killing the goose that lays the golden egg. If handled correctly, mining is a tough global competition for miners but an easy win for local energy producers. But mishandling could very quickly kill a historic source of revenue.

Initially, the government made the mistake of temporarily blocking Bitcoin mining equipment imports in 2022 while it tried to come up with new regulations. Then in 2023, it implemented rules about Bitcoin mining as “cryptography” rather than “energy”. But in fact, mining involves no encryption in the conventional sense of trying to keep information secret. The computation is basically just a hash function with public inputs and public outputs. It’s just a race between miners to get the output faster.  (Even transaction validation, which usually is not even on the miner but in the pool, only involves checking signatures which anyone can do — no secrets). At one point we were even told that only foreign companies could participate in this industry, which is unconstitutional! Fortunately, over the last couple of months, these errors are getting understood and things are moving in the right direction.

The Ugly

An unfortunate side effect of taking the wrong regulatory approach is potential for corruption.  Bitcoin miners are not all idealistic. Even when they are so inclined, competition is so fierce there’s always a temptation to look for legal short cuts. On top of that, many foreigners come with a “this is Africa” attitude. Translation: corruption is a natural feature of the landscape. So they try bulldoze their way in with bribery. If it doesn’t work, they try the next place. If it works, they exploit it as fast as possible, and when it inevitably blows up, just pack up and move to the next hunting grounds.

For many countries, oil wealth turned into the infamous “resource curse“, undermining governance and even being negative for economic development. In the worst cases, it goes beyond bribery to outright theft: taking the energy and not paying for it. This is a danger with Bitcoin for electricity-rich countries too. Kazakhstan, Angola, and some other countries have experienced this ugly side. Fortunately, there’s no evidence of this occurring in Ethiopia yet, but it is perhaps the greatest theoretical danger.

The best way to avoid this is for the government to eschew regulatory micromanagement. Rather than trying to control it through hardware imports, or make it political, or treat it as cryptography, or have too many stakeholders at the table, it should allow this industry to naturally find a win-win buyer-seller relationship with energy. This means allowing flexible electricity capacity allocation and pricing.  

The government’s focus should be on monitoring the bigger picture: that the energy security of the country is not compromised. So rather than trying to regulate the details of what miners do, the government should require the power company to regularly report on overall high and medium voltage demand by region, generation and transmission capacity, and provide assurances that supply and demand are sustainably managed across all industries and regions.

So there are a few ways things could go wrong. It’s important to understand them. But part of me fears that I have given ammunition to the haters. I hope I’ve struck the right balance.  Reviewing this post, I see I’ve devoted a lot more words to the good than to the bad and ugly. And that is as it should be.  We face a historic opportunity for two things I care deeply about: Ethiopia and Bitcoin. May both live long and prosper!

P.S. This post is months overdue! And it’s too long. To quote Mark Twain: “I didn’t have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead.”

This article first appeared here: https://nemozen.semret.org/2024/04/bitcoin-mining-in-ethiopia-good-bad-and.html

The post Bitcoin mining in Ethiopia: the good, the bad and the ugly appeared first on Abren.

In a signing ceremony held on Wednesday, Ethio-Telecom CEO Frehiwot Tamiru and Yodahe Zemichael, Executive Director of National ID Ethiopia, inked a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). This partnership enables Ethio-Telecom to kickstart the registration process at 29 centers across the country, including its service centers in various cities, including the capital, Addis Ababa.

With an ambitious goal of registering up to one million Ethiopians monthly, Ethio-Telecom aims to contribute to the overall target of registering 32 million individuals, representing 36% of the national plan.

In another significant development, the Ethiopian Bankers Association has entered into a strategic agreement with Lamino Engineering PLC to expand the availability of Digital IDs to 40 million people.

Under the agreement, Lamino Engineering will supply 6000 Digital ID registration equipment valued at 1 billion birr to the association, enabling over 11 thousand bank branches nationwide to offer registration services.

The agreement is expected to enhance digital financial services for the 40 million people already integrated into the financial sector. Additionally, it will facilitate access to financial services for 30% of the population previously hindered by the lack of identification documents, according to the EPA.

The mandatory integration of digital ID into banking activities in Ethiopia marks a significant stride in the country’s pursuit of financial inclusivity. Leveraging the Fayda system, Ethiopia aligns itself with a worldwide initiative to establish secure, streamlined, and inclusive digital identification platforms. This shift holds the promise of transforming Ethiopia’s financial landscape and enabling its citizens to seamlessly tap into a wide range of services and opportunities.

The ‘Digital ID for Inclusion and Services Project’ aims to register a minimum of 90 million Ethiopians by 2026, providing them with access to an inclusive and secure ID that enhances their access to services and economic opportunities. The initiative also includes refugees and migrants residing in Ethiopia.

In 2022, the National Identity Program initiated the enrollment process for the Fayda ID, which serves as Ethiopia’s primary identification document for confirming one’s identity. Financed with $350 million from the World Bank in December 2023, the program has already registered 4,680,152 Ethiopians to receive the Fayda Digital ID Card, as reported on the National ID Ethiopia portal.

The post Ethio-Telecom initiates nationwide Digital ID enrollment across 29 urban centers. appeared first on Abren.

Rich countries worldwide have by enlarge adopted economic policies towards supporting and subsidizing domestic industries, yet they are pushing the international financial institutions such as the IMF to impose an outdated prescription of the “Washington Consensus” towards developing economies in Africa. Recent conversations among various debt distressed developing countries highlights this dissonance.

A majority of developing countries are currently debt distressed and the G20 common framework is failing them in a big way. This in turn is reversing years, if not decades of developmental gains made by the global south. It is also leading many to lose trust in global institutions such as the IMF and World Bank.

Speaking to the Guardian News, World Bank Chief Economist, Indermit Gill expressed skepticism about the global economy’s trajectory, particularly for low-income countries facing substantial debt burdens. He emphasized the detrimental impact of debt payments on essential sectors like healthcare and education, calling for sustainable solutions to alleviate financial strain.

Due to rising debt burdens, advocating austerity, and unbridled capitalism policies for developing nations is losing favor, particularly among developing countries. As a result, many now perceive traditional Western-led economic strategies as hypocritical.

During latest spring meetings in Washington, unbeknownst to the public, IMF & World Bank came under siege as leaders from the global south decried the hypocrisy of rich-country creditors demanding austerity from borrowers while running up huge debt loads and deficit financing themselves. Meanwhile, in Brussels, former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi advocated for an EU-wide industrial policy. This stands in stark contrast to EU policy recommendations given to countries in Africa for example.

In the United States, the Biden administration proposed tripling tariffs on China and addressing labor unions’ concerns regarding shipbuilding trade relief to counter Chinese state support, according to a recent report by the Financial Times. However, cross-border business continued as usual, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz leading industrial leaders on a trip to Beijing for joint ventures, and US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo facilitating a $1.5 billion artificial intelligence investment in the United Arab Emirates by Microsoft.

Washington is increasingly adopting similar industrial policies it has criticized China for. It is also employing sovereign wealth to support American corporations like Intel, Microsoft, and Boeing, encouraging local production and global expansion. Additionally, the US is implementing stringent import restrictions, formalizing a “Buy American” policy. Ironically, these are all policies the West has discouraged poor countries from taking.

The disconnect between these economic policies and market realities underscores the ongoing struggle between long-term development goals and short-term profit maximization. While Draghi highlighted the detrimental effects of post-2008 austerity measures on domestic demand, prompting the EU’s pursuit of a new capital markets union, in Africa the same European institutions are pushing mostly the opposite.

In the US, there appears to be growing recognition of this. The inadequacy of free trade market proposals in addressing key issues such as climate change and infrastructure development is becoming clear, particularly in developing countries. The White House can no longer ignore concerns raised by the global south. Recently, Daleep Singh, the US deputy national security adviser for international economics, urged for increased utilization of America’s sovereign loan guarantee authority to help restructure loans provided to developing countries.

At an Oxfam panel, Adriana Abdenur highlighted the contradiction between rich countries advocating for industrial policy while imposing outdated prescriptions for developing nations. This is exactly what renowned South Korean economist Ha Joon Chang warned against in his best-selling book, Bad Samaritans, The Myth of Free Trade, and the Secret History of Capitalism.

The US is beginning to acknowledge this mismatch, with Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh proposing initiatives to lower interest rates on developing countries and boost investment domestically. But more is needed from developed countries to help poor societies.

We are now at a pivotal moment in global economic policymaking, with no single country possessing all the answers, but still, stakeholders including the IMF and World Bank cling to outdated modes of thinking, risking further global economic disruption. As the world transitions to a new economic paradigm, the path forward remains uncertain but what is clear is that business as usual is not working anymore, and a serious shift in outlook is needed.

The post Africa decries hypocrisy of rich countries, as global economic paradigm-shift beckons. appeared first on Abren.

Executive Director of IFA, Jafar Bedru, and the Head of the BRICS Expert Council – Russia, along with Vice Rector of HSE University, are among the distinguished participants at the event held in Addis Ababa.

During the forum, Jafar Bedru emphasized Ethiopia’s commitment to leveraging its BRICS membership to bolster its development agenda through inclusive partnerships. He highlighted Ethiopia’s endorsement of multilateralism and its active engagement in global governance reform initiatives to ensure representation and responsiveness to the needs of developing nations. Bedru stressed the complementary role of BRICS plus countries in diversifying foreign relations, underscoring the importance of collaboration over competition in international politics.

Ethiopia’s membership is a sign of the country’s growing influence on the African geopolitical space, particularly as BRICS seeks attract growing economies with big population centers of the global south. Ethiopia is a potential beneficiary of the New Development Bank, established by BRICS. The bank has a total volume of $30 billion in loans approved to different countries so far.

Ethiopia, a seasoned participant in multilateral institutions, holds the distinction of being a founding member of the African Union, headquartered in Addis Ababa. Additionally, it stands as the first African state to secure representation at the United Nations. Despite recent challenges stemming from conflict and internal political unrest, the country’s growth trajectory remains promising. 

According to the IMF Ethiopia’s GDP to surged by 6.2% in 2023, positioning it among the world’s fastest-growing economies. As Ethiopia looks to the future, joining BRICS presents a unique avenue to bolster its influence across the African continent. Moreover, the nation is gearing up to pursue membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), signaling its commitment to deeper integration into the global economy.

The post IFA holds BRICS-Plus Academic Forum in Addis Ababa appeared first on Abren.

While the dialogue commission is actively seeking inclusive participation, it acknowledges the complexities inherent in engaging stakeholders from conflict-affected areas. Identifying and enabling the involvement of these groups poses challenges but is essential for a comprehensive and effective dialogue process that addresses the root causes of conflicts.

National Dialogue leadership for its part stated the platform is equally open to all and that participants should welcome the opportunity to envision an inclusive path forward. In addition, the commissioner reiterated pledged to remaining independent of interference by government or other entities.

However, several opposition political groups have voiced concerns, questioning the effectiveness of a national dialogue that does not adequately address fundamental political issues. This skepticism underscores the importance of ensuring that the dialogue process is inclusive, transparent, and addresses the legitimate grievances of all stakeholders for lasting peace and stability in Ethiopia.

Despite the commission’s outreach efforts, militant groups have yet to confirm their participation in the consultation process. Additionally, opposition parties such as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) have opted out, expressing reservations about the approach of the national dialogue.

The National Dialogue Commission of Ethiopia has made a significant overture by inviting armed groups to participate in the country’s dialogue process, aiming at fostering peace and reconciliation. Commissioner Professor Mesfin Araya emphasized the importance of this opportunity during a gathering of community representatives from the Oromia region in Shashemene city, urging armed entities to engage in constructive dialogue.

The National Dialogue Commission is expected to continue its nationwide engagement wherever conditions allow. There are currently plans to meet communities in Amhara and Tigray, regions that have been impacted by recent conflict. 

The post Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Commission Seeks Inclusive Engagement Amidst Challenges appeared first on Abren.

A senior official at the World Bank has raised concerns about the effectiveness of the debt relief mechanism for the world’s poorest countries, calling for a significant overhaul.

Despite the existence of the common framework since 2020, only a handful of countries have sought relief through it, leading Gill to question its efficacy and the reluctance of countries to participate due to limited access to financial markets and insufficient debt relief programs.

In an interview with The Guardian during the bank’s spring meetings in Washington, Gill emphasized the urgent need for acknowledgment and reform. He criticized the common framework for its inability to meet the expectations set by leaders, likening attempts to salvage it to futile endeavors.

Gill also highlighted the inadequacy of the common framework’s secretariat, the Paris Club, in addressing the interests of major creditors like China, which is not a member of the club.

Gill pointed out key weaknesses of the common framework, including the delayed involvement of private bondholders in debt negotiations. He advocated for learning from past strategies, citing the Nicholas Brady plan from the 1980s as a model for systematic debt relief.

Speaking to the Guardian News, Gill said, “We have to recognize the problems. The common framework won’t deliver what leaders say it will. They are saying: ‘This horse is not dead yet, so let’s just keep whipping it.’”

Furthermore, Gill expressed skepticism about the global economy’s trajectory, particularly for low-income countries facing substantial debt burdens. He emphasized the detrimental impact of debt payments on essential sectors like healthcare and education, calling for sustainable solutions to alleviate financial strain.

While the IMF takes a more positive view of the common framework’s impact, Gill remains cautious, stressing the urgent need for effective debt restructuring to support struggling nations’ path towards sustainability.

A majority of developing countries are currently debt distressed and the G20 common framework is failing them in a big way. This in turn is reversing years, if not decades of developmental gains made by the global south. It is also leading many to lose trust in global institutions such as the IMF and World Bank.

The post World Bank issues dire warning, urging immediate overhaul of G20 debt relief program appeared first on Abren.

The administrator of the southern zone of Tigray, Habtu Kiros, refuted the report, asserting that there were no major clashes, only a minor incident incited by forces in the Raya-Alamata. He clarified that Tigrayan protesters, advocating for the implementation of the return of IDPs, embarked on a long public demonstration march from Mahoni and Maichew towns to federal forces checkpoints over the weekend of April 13, 2024.

In contrast, Raya Alamata administrator Mola Derbew claimed that Tigray forces had employed heavy weaponry to capture the Addis Berhan and the Garjale zones near by. A few days earlier, in anticipation there were Amhara public demonstrations in and around Alamata, asking for “greater unity against the coming attack”.

Mola Derbew stated that the Tigray regional forces, commonly referred to as the TPLF, orchestrated the attack, which began at 11:00 a.m. on Saturday and continued until late Monday April 15, 2024. But given recent deep divisions between the Interim administration of Tigray and members of the TPLF, it remains doubtful if another round of war has popular support.

This flare up reignites tensions from the two-year long war that ended in late 2022 with the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, which effectively needed the fighting between the Federal government and the TPLF. However, unresolved issues persist, including contested territories, disarmament of ex-combatants, and the repatriation of displaced persons, many from the Tigray region, but also from Afar and Amhara. 

Raya-Alamata, previously administered by Tigray, fell into Amhara hands during the 2020-2022 war. But the issue goes back further, with Amhara claiming the lands as having been unjustly annexed into Tigray by the TPLF in the early 1990s, after the group came to power following a protracted civil war lasting seventeen years.  

The resurgence of hostilities has seen Tigray forces reportedly advancing into some areas of the district. But sources close to the matter provide a more nuance outlook. Senior officials in Amhara say they cannot rule out involvement of some Amhara Fano rebels from North Wollo, who view a tactical cooperation with TPLF as beneficial in their fight against the federal government. 

Certain Fano factions have recently touted the merits of collaborating with the TPLF. This is especially true considering disappointments incurred by the rebels in their disjointed drive to oust the federal government. A renewed government offensive against the Fano in Amhara may have prompted some of them to reconsider their long-held misgivings for TPLF. Chatter on social media outlets closely associated with both Fano and TPLF forces seemed to predict a sort of tactical convergence between them.

Last week Ethiopian Telegram channels indicated Fano fighters operating in North Wollo were receiving arms, ammunition, and logistical support from Tigray, via the town of Sekota. Authorities in Amahara claimed their continued vigilance in confiscating the flow of arms from Tigray into the hands of insurgents in Amhara. 

It was recently revealed Fano commander Mehiret Wodajo received medical treatment at Ayder hospital in Mekelle. TPLF linked media outlets opposed to the Pretoria Peace Agreement have flaunted this as symbol of their renewed war pact to oust the federal government.

There is also plausible speculation to suggest the incursion of gunmen from Tigray into Ofla and Alamata zones is a false-flag operation, involving TPLF’s army 23 and 24, as a way of confounding federal government action. Ofla zone administrator Fisseha Mola said, “the situation is fluid and has the potential to expand into a wider war”.

Given the level of mistrust and recrimination between Fano and TPLF, it remains to be seen how this new alliance would be viewed by the public on both sides. In either case, this latest clash will have the effect of delaying a lasting and peaceful resolution to the question of disputed territories.

Immediately following the incursion on Alamata, Tigray regional interim leader, Getachew Reda, on twitter, denounced the move as instigation by “diehard enemies to the Pretoria Peace Agreement”. However, this was immediately followed by another criptic tweet meant to arouse Tigray nationalism. Observers viewed this as double-speak and contradictory to his earlier point made about “those opposed to peace”. Getachew has to perform a tight rope balancing act. On the one hand he must assuage TPLF hardliners while also maintaining his relationship with the federal government in lieu of the peace agreement.

Speaking to Abren, a senior Amhara official currently on a visit in the United States says, “there is an element of confused blabbering at play, and it seems to be deliberately designed to confuse the public about he true intention of TPLF leaders, who seek to break with the peace agreement, albeit without drawing much in the way of international attention, or condemnation”.

Efforts to resolve divides between Tigray, Amhara and the authorities in Addis Ababa have been accompanied by little reported shadow wars. Authorities in Amhara have sought to entrench their administration in disputed territories, much to the chagrin of Tigray. In response TPLF hardliners have sought inflame the current Fano rebellion in Amhara. Relatedly, little attention has been given to a recently attempted incursion of TPLF affiliated militia from Sudan near the border crossing of Metema. 

External entities have also been inserting themselves as a third-party instigator in ongoing clashes in Gambella between the Nuer and Anuak tribes. Simon Tut, chairman of the opposition Gambella People’s Democratic Movement says, “there is certainly a strategy to provoke tension in the region by outside forces.”  He adds, “these subversive activities must be seen in-light of proxy shadow wars by various actors including the TPLF and others outside of Ethiopia”.  

The latest clashes in Alamata come on the heal of efforts to mediate a lasting solution between Amhara and Tigray. Senior officials from the Amhara region, speaking on condition of antonymy accuse Tigrayan authorities of obfuscating their intentions on resolution of contested territories. “In public, as well as in our meetings with them, they say they want IDPs to return, which is wholly justified, but when we actually begin laying out the groundwork to implement this plan, they turn around and incite another round conflict”, said one official. 

For their part authorities in Tigray accuse the Amhara regional government of orchestrating an ethnic cleansing campaign in the disputed territories. They say there are hundreds of thousands of IDPs that need to go back to their homes in areas currently “occupied by the Amhara region”.

Clandestine activities are elevating mistrust on all sides, endangering the viability of the Pretoria Peace Agreement. So far, the federal government has chosen restraint, perhaps in hopes of avoiding an endless cycle of entanglements with shadow warriors in Ethiopia’s highly fractured and illusive political landscape, which is proving difficult to govern democratically. 

A bit further south, in Kobo, people remain anxious. Residents here are watching to see if in case the TPLF forces that recently entered Alamata decide to expel Amhara residents and perhaps even expand their incursion into other areas. At the time of this writing, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported the number of people displaced from Raya-Alamata spiked in just the last few days.

In the meantime, the diplomatic missions of seven Western nations, among them the US and the UK, have included their apprehension over the reported unrest in Alamata in their general collective statement issued last week. They emphasize the need for de-escalation, disarmament and demobilization efforts for all armed combatants.

The post TPLF forces push out Amhara administration from Alamata, as disputes in northern Ethiopia become muddied appeared first on Abren.

Despite Somaliland’s successful establishment as an independent democracy since 1991, the G7’s strong stance supporting Somalia’s claims over Somaliland in the MoU has dealt a significant blow to the former British protectorate. This setback follows earlier indications from British officials hinting at the UK’s potential recognition of Somaliland, given its strategic significance at the entrance to the Red Sea, with the major port of Berbera.

The G7 communique, issued during a meeting of foreign ministers in Naples struck a softer tone, but raised concerns among officials, tying the UK to the contentious issue. The statement urges dialogue between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland to prevent further escalation, but critics argue it interferes with sovereign decisions.

This diplomatic tension highlights broader geopolitical complexities, including military efforts against Houthi insurgents in the Red Sea. Some attribute the US’s stance to past support for Somalia’s claims during Barack Obama’s presidency, while others suggest influence from US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar’s advocacy against Somaliland recognition.

Meanwhile, British MPs’ recent visit to Somaliland garnered support for the unrecognized state, praised as a beacon of democracy in the region. Conservative MP Alexander Stafford condemned the G7’s intervention, emphasizing the need for respect for sovereign decisions.

Former UK Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson, a key advocate for Somaliland recognition, criticized the G7’s stance, calling for a departure from failed policies and a recognition of Somaliland’s democratic achievements.

Amidst these diplomatic tensions, the contrast between Somalia’s instability and Somaliland’s democratic progress is starkly evident. While Somaliland prepares for upcoming elections, Somalia continues to grapple with governance challenges, emphasizing the divergent paths of the two entities.

Despite the mixed reactions in Somaliland, the government of Somalia has welcomed the G7 communique, further exacerbating tensions between the two entities.

The roots of this international dispute trace back to Somaliland’s quest for independence in 1991, following years of persecution and ethnic tensions within the union with Somalia. With its strategic location and vital port facilities, Somaliland’s recognition holds significance in addressing regional security challenges, including Houthi threats to shipping lanes.

However, Ethiopia’s possible recognition of Somaliland, driven by its need for port access, has sparked diplomatic tensions with Somalia. While Western countries await African leadership on Somaliland recognition, Ethiopia’s decision was expected to catalyze a shift in attitudes.

The post G7 statement strikes softer tone on Somaliland-Ethiopia MoU appeared first on Abren.

Speaking at a conference on regional security in the Horn of Africa, Abdulaziz reiterated Ethiopia’s dedication to the MoU. He emphasized the potential benefits of Ethiopian access to sea outlets through collaboration with Somalia, a country with a coastline stretching over 3,000 kilometers.

Abdulaziz characterized Mogadishu’s objections as a “hiccup,” suggesting they are aimed at diverting attention from internal political challenges. Despite this, he underscored Ethiopia’s commitment to regional integration and urged cooperation against terrorist groups and human traffickers.

Abdulaziz called on neighboring countries to prioritize collaboration and peace, highlighting Ethiopia’s significant contributions to peacekeeping efforts in Sudan and Somalia. He also cautioned against the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia, emphasizing the potential risks to Ethiopia and the broader region.

The MoU, signed on January 1, 2024, has sparked considerable debate, particularly with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasizing the critical nature of sea access for Ethiopia. This stance has heightened tensions in the Horn of Africa. Nonetheless, Abdulaziz remains optimistic about the prospects for cooperation and mutual growth between Ethiopia and Somalia.

The post Ethiopia remains resolute on MoU with Somaliland amid Controversy appeared first on Abren.

Among its key features is the extradition and trial of individuals residing abroad accused of crimes in Ethiopia, with rewards offered to whistleblowers. Those providing testimony against alleged wrongdoers will receive government protection.

The policy, outlined in a document encompasses various provisions, including the establishment of specialized courts and attorney general’s offices to tack many of the transitional justice needs of Ethiopia.

Implementation of this policy is expected to demand significant financial, human, and institutional resources, with plans for a special attorney general’s office to lead the process.

Special courts will be established for human rights cases, with judges selected based on merit and expertise in relevant fields.

A Truth Finding Commission will also be formed, comprising representatives from civil society, elders, religious leaders, and experts. This commission will fan out across the country seeking counsel form local representatives and citizens.

Additionally, the federal government as well non-government structures plan to seek forgiveness from victims and establish a special fund for recovery and support.

Regional administrations will be involved in returning internally displaced persons (IDPs) and implementing reforms to address past violations.

The Ministry of Finance is tasked with budget allocation, while the Civil Service Commission will manage salaries and workforce requirements.

The Federal Court and Central Statistics Service will collaborate on data compilation, and the Justice Ministry will devise an implementation roadmap.

This would be the biggest and most complex transitional justice mechanism undertaken by Ethiopia, a country that has been ailing form growing divisions and fractures to the social fabric. Many in Ethiopians also hold diametrically opposing views on the merits of the current constitution and system of governance. If implemented successful, the transitional justice could mark a paradigm shift in Ethiopia’s biopolitics. 

The post Ethiopia: Policy document sets transitional justice start date, calls for new courts appeared first on Abren.

On Tuesday, nations committed over $630 million to tackle the pressing humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia. The donor conference, held at the United Nations’ European headquarters, aimed to secure substantial pledges toward the $1 billion urgently needed by the UN for aid over the next three months. In the end 21 countries pledged to support.

While the hosts acknowledged beforehand that reaching the full amount was unlikely, they aimed to bridge the gap between needs and funding.

Joyce Msuya, UN Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, emphasized that this was just the beginning, hoping for sustained and increased support throughout the year.

According to OCHA, pledges came from 21 countries totaled $628.9 million. The largest contributor was the United States, offering $253 million, followed by the United Kingdom with 100 million pounds ($124.58 million), and the European Union with $46.6 million.

Ethiopia grapples with internal conflicts, economic challenges, climate shocks, and a worsening food and malnutrition crisis.

The UN estimates a requirement of $3.24 billion this year, including aid for approximately four million internally displaced persons, yet prior to the conference, the funding stood at less than five percent.

Shiferaw Teklemariam, commissioner of the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission, stressed the urgency, urging action before it’s too late.

The UN highlighted the immediate need for $1 billion for urgent aid until the end of June, as well as preparations for the lean season from July to September, when approximately 11 million people are projected to face critical food insecurity.The humanitarian situation is described as critical, with an opportunity to avert further deterioration through swift action.

However, the distribution of aid remains a challenge, with concerns about ensuring it reaches those in need. Last year, aid distribution was temporarily halted due to allegations of diversion, which Ethiopia’s government denied.

Despite reforms and stringent measures, there’s still insufficient aid to distribute effectively. Conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with peace and security essential for resolving the crisis effectively.

The post Nations commit to providing Ethiopia with over $600 million in aid. appeared first on Abren.

Mebrahtom Gezaei, the head of peace and security in Tahtay Adiyabo, revealed that these individuals were held in a prison located in Barentu. According to him, they were initially subjected to abduction before enduring detention in Eritrea. Although local news in Tigray depicted these prisoners as abductees, information from the Eritrea suggests a majority were taken during the war from 2020 to 2022, and with a smaller number taken from border areas in the past year.

The release of these prisoners strikes a positive note. Speaking to authorities in Ethiopia, Abren was able to confirm, this latest release of Ethiopian prisoners held in Eritrea was a result of back-channel talks between Addis Ababa and Asmara. Furthermore, talks are underway between the two sides to resolve their long simmering border dispute and perhaps begin final demarcation based on the Algiers agreement. 

Relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia soured following the Pretoria Peace Agreement, ending the two-year war where both sides fought together to subdue a rebellion in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which borders Eritrea. The regional government in Tigray accuses Eritrea of territorial infringements near Zalambesa, Irob and Gulakmeda. It has asked the federal government to intervene on its behalf. While indicating its desire to see the border demarcated, the federal government has been reluctant to enter another protracted entanglement with its northern neighbor, particularly given its tricky relationship with the TPLF.

Recent efforts to mend ties between the Interim Administration of Tigray, led by Getachew Reda and the authorities in Addis Ababa has been accompanied by little reported shadow wars, whereby TPLF hardliners have sought inflame the current conflict in Amhara. Little attention has been given to attempted incursion of TPLF affiliated militia via Sudan, north of Metema. The TPLF has also been seeking to insert itself as a third party instigator in ongoing clashes in Gambella between the Nuer tribe of South Sudan and the Anuak residing in Ethiopia.

As recently as yesterday, there were reports of militiamen associated with the TPLF from Tigray making an assault on Alamata, a town in the disputed territory of Raya, claimed by Amhara. This latest move appears to be intended at complicating federal plans for a lasting settlement of the issue through referendum, similar to ones that have been taking place in southern Ethiopia.

Such clandestine activities are elevating mistrust on all sides, endangering the viability of the Pretoria Peace Agreement. So far these pinprick provocations have been largely ignored by the federal government, which does not want to get dragged into yet another cycle of violence, but the question remains for how long. 

The post Eritrea releases prisoners from Tigray, as TPLF continues shadow wars in Ethiopia appeared first on Abren.