Somalia, which still maintains Somaliland as part of its territory, strongly opposes the agreement. This has raised concerns about potential instability in the already fragile Horn of Africa region.

Kenya’s proposed treaty, developed in collaboration with Djibouti and the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), aims to establish a clear framework for landlocked countries to access ports commercially within the region. This could potentially offer Ethiopia the port access they seek without infringing upon Somalia’s territorial claims. The Kenya plan aims to diffuse tensions.

The deal comes after a recent trip by Somalia’s President to the Kenyan capital of Nairobi. It offers Somalia an offramp, but no doubt the proposal will be a hard sell in Addis Ababa and Hargeisa, where both parties would feel they have more to offer each other than what they could gain by the Kenyan proposal.

The complex set of relations between the nations of the Horn and the larger Middle East make a comprehensive regional maritime access for landlocked countries difficult, something Ethiopia would find cumbersome, given its economic ambitions and security needs.

Nonetheless, Ethiopia rarely if ever ignores regional diplomatic efforts. It is expected both Somalia and Ethiopia will be considering the proposal. Kenyan officials are encouraging leaders from both nations to meet and discuss a path forward. Time is seen as a critical factor, as the militant group al-Shabaab could exploit the disagreement to further destabilize Somalia’s government.

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“The World Bank is fully committed to supporting Kenya in its journey to become an upper-middle-income country by 2030,” the statement said. “Subject to the World Bank Executive Directors approval of new operations, and to factors which may affect the bank’s lending capacity, this implies a total financial package of $12 billion over the three years.”, said the world bank statement.

Due to uncertainties regarding its ability to secure financing from financial markets before the maturity of a $2 billion Eurobond next June, Kenya has faced significant liquidity challenges. This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a staff-level agreement with Kenya, providing the country with immediate access to an additional $682 million tranche of funds and expanding its existing lending program by $938 million. World Bank Country Director Keith Hansen noted that the World Bank aimed to clarify the anticipated level of resources available to Kenya in response to recent government statements and the IMF staff consensus.

Many African countries face similar financing difficulties, exacerbated by the Covid pandemic and rising global interest rates. Neighboring Ethiopia also finds itself in a long and drawn-out negotiations multilateral financial institution as well as bilateral creditors.

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