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In a surprising but strategically sound turn of events, Somalia eased tensions with Ethiopia through a deal brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The Ankara Declaration, as it’s being called, not only provides a face-saving exit for both countries but also positions Somalia for a stronger future—one grounded in pragmatic diplomacy rather than regional rivalry.
For context, Somalia’s initial alignment with Egypt—an archrival of Ethiopia—came as a response to Ethiopia’s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, a de-facto independent region that Somalia considers part of its sovereign territory. Egypt, ever wary of Ethiopia’s growing influence sought to draw Eritrea into a broader coalition aimed at containing Ethiopia’s maritime and Nile River ambitions.
While initially appearing to strengthen Somalia’s position vis-à-vis Ethiopia, the axis with Egypt and Eritrea risked alienating Turkey, in addition to Ethiopia. Turkey, economically the most important partner to Somalia, has poured the most financial and developmental resources into the Horn of Africa nation. Ethiopia for its part is the most crucial in helping Somalia combat the threat of Al Shabab. Losing both strategic partners to placate Cairo and Asmara would be a massive miscalculation, and one that the government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) would be wise to avoid.
Moreover, the European Union and the United States, which play a significant role in funding the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), may oppose the idea of a peacekeeping force composed of both Ethiopia and Egypt—two nations with starkly conflicting geopolitical interests, particularly in light of their longstanding dispute over Nile water resource sharing. The inclusion of both may worsen Somalia’s internal conflicts, especially if each side takes onto backing a certain faction.
Indeed, the Ankara Declaration is a direct response to these competing pressures. By opting for a pragmatic partnership with Turkey and Ethiopia, Somalia ensures that it maintains critical diplomatic and security relationships. In return it recognized Ethiopia’s legitimate quest for reliable and unmediated access the sea. Considering the sea-access question by Addis Ababa, President Erdogan of Turkey stated, “the world is big enough for all of us”.
This is not to say that Cairo and Asmara are irrelevant to Somalia’s calculations; however, their role in Somalia’s future is limited, and their strategic importance pales in comparison to that of Ethiopia and Turkey.
The Ankara Declaration has not been well-received by Cairo and Asmara. Both are reportedly looking for ways to undermine the agreement, likely out of frustration with Somalia’s shift away from their sphere of influence. Yet, despite their best efforts, Somalia’s government seems unlikely to renege on a deal that was facilitated by its most important international partner, Turkey. Western powers, too, have expressed overwhelming support for the agreement, underscoring its significance on the global stage.
More importantly, Somalia cannot afford to alienate Ethiopia, with which it shares a vast and porous border. For years, Ethiopian troops have been instrumental in combatting Al Shabab, a threat that continues to destabilize Somalia and the wider region. Without Ethiopia’s cooperation, Somalia’s security would be severely compromised, and peace and stability would remain elusive. While Egypt has sought to influence the Horn of Africa, its policies are often distant and disconnected from the practical realities on the ground in Somalia. If it were to send troops to Somalia, it will likely be at odds with Ethiopia’s mission, which would serve to deteriorate the security situation in Somalia. This of course would be a huge loss for Turkey, which needs peaceful coexistence to secure its many investments made in Somalia, which includes a significant share of Somalia’s maritime resources to include fisheries, as well as long range rocket test sites on the expansive Indian Ocean
The government of HSM likely understands that leveraging Egypt and Eritrea as a short-term tactic to put pressure on Ethiopia is just that—a temporary maneuver. Such a strategy might yield some tactical victories, but it cannot be sustained in the long run without endangering Somalia’s broader national interests. The Ankara Declaration, by contrast, offers a durable framework for collaboration with both Ethiopia and Turkey, two key players in Somalia’s future.
Therefore, The Ankara Declaration represents a wise recalibration of Somalia’s foreign policy. While it may have been tempting for Somalia to align itself with Egypt and Eritrea to counter Ethiopia, such a strategy would have come at the cost of essential partnerships with Turkey and Ethiopia. By embracing a more pragmatic approach, Somalia secures its position, as one that values strategic relationships over transient rivalries. For Mogadishu, the path forward is clear: collaboration, not confrontation, is the key to securing peace and stability.
