Centered on the Berbera port in Somaliland, the deal follows Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed breaking the silence on Red Sea access for his nation in October of 2023. At the time his statements had raised concerns in the region. Berbera, situated on the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden, serves as an African gateway to the Red Sea and the entrance to the Suez Canal. It is also the site where Ethiopia’s rich cattle and animal livestock resources are exported to the Middle East, albeit mostly in illegal trade. Getting control of its own ports will allow Ethiopia to better manage this trade.

Presently, Ethiopia heavily depends on Djibouti, its neighboring country, for most of its maritime trade. “We have now reached an agreement with our Somaliland counterparts, and a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was formally signed today,” stated Abiy during the signing ceremony held in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, alongside Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi.

President Abdi announced that, as a component of the accord, Ethiopia is set to become the inaugural nation to officially acknowledge Somaliland as an independent state soon. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) facilitates Ethiopia’s entry into commercial maritime activities at the port of Berbera. It also paves the way in granting access to a naval base on the Red Sea through a leasing arrangement, revealed Redwan Hussien, Abiy’s National Security Adviser. Additionally, Somaliland is slated to acquire a share in the state-owned Ethiopian Airlines Group, although specific details were not disclosed, as stated by Hussien.

Despite declaring autonomy from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland has yet to achieve broad international recognition. For Its part The Republic of Somalia maintains that Somaliland is part of its territory. Last week, Somalia’s SONNA state media agency announced that, with Djibouti taking the lead in mediation, Somalia and Somaliland had agreed to restart discussions aimed at resolving their long-standing disagreements.

Ethiopia, the most populous landlocked country in the world, lost direct access to the sea in 1993 after Eritrea declared independence, leading to three-decades of fraught relations. Since then, Ethiopia has primarily relied on Djibouti for its trade activities. However, in 2018 a peace agreement with Eritrea promised to rekindle ties, but relations between Asmara and Addis Ababa cooled visible in 2023.

Given the circumstance, Somaliland is an attractive option for Ethiopia’s port ambitions. It is geographically accessible to Ethiopia’s mainland, but more importantly, this de facto autonomous region, which declared “the restoration of its independence from Somalia” in May 1991 could be amenable to Ethiopia in return for security assistance and recognition of its vaunted statehood. So far Somaliland has only received recognition by Taiwan, itself a semi-autonomous region of The People’s Republic of China. It maintains diplomatic missions in seven countries, most notably Ethiopia. Somaliland has been relatively successful and most importantly peaceful. It has managed all its affairs independently since about 1993 and has become self-reliant in many ways. It holds elections, has its own currency, and by regional standards, its telecom and banking sectors are notable.

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The FCDO spokesperson remarked, “Twenty-three years ago today, Ethiopia and Eritrea, with the support of the international community, concluded the Algiers Agreement to establish peace and demarcate a common border.” Highlighting the historical significance of the 2018 peace agreement, the spokesperson emphasized the joint commitment of both nations to uphold the borders as outlined in the Algiers Agreement and its subsequent Boundary Commission. The UK, reiterating its steadfast support, emphasized the paramount importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity defined by these agreements. The statement further emphasized the UK’s ongoing dedication to collaborating with all Horn of Africa countries towards the shared goal of a peaceful and prosperous region.

Similarly, the United States, in its official statement, reflected on the shared history of Ethiopia and Eritrea in concluding the Algiers Agreement 23 years ago. In 2018, both nations recommitted to respecting the established borders in a historic peace agreement. The U.S. government emphasized the continued importance of upholding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both countries, particularly on this significant anniversary. Encouraging collaboration between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the United States underscored the spirit of peace forged between the two nations, envisioning a more stable and prosperous region.

The timing of these statements is intriguing, considering the Algiers Agreement was initially reached in December 2000. Despite the historic peace agreement of 2018, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea persisted for nearly two decades, casting a shadow over the official demarcation of the border. In 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s olive branch to Eritrea led to the end of a prolonged no-war-no-peace stalemate, earning him the Nobel Peace Prize.

However, recent events have introduced complexities. Following the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) between Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), relations between Asmara and Addis Ababa have witnessed a visible cool-down. Continued reports of Eritrean combatants in northern Ethiopia and Ethiopia’s vocal aspirations for access to Eritrean ports and the establishment of a Naval force have added a layer of tension to the diplomatic landscape.

The reiteration of support for the Algiers Agreement by both Washington and London at this particular time has prompted varied interpretations. Some view it as a subtle diplomatic nudge, urging restraint and the preservation of territorial integrity. However, others perceive it as a veiled instigation of potential conflict, given the complex geopolitical dynamics in the region. There is no doubt it is peculiar.

As the world reflects on the 23-year journey since the Algiers Agreement, the international community may be side tracked by other more pressing conflicts around the world. Yet it remains one point of tension at the mouth of an already troubled Red Sea region.

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The turmoil in Sudan escalated after tensions between military chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan and Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo erupted into open fighting in mid-April in Khartoum and other parts of the country. The conflict has its roots in the aftermath of a popular uprising in 2019 that led to the removal of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir. The subsequent transition to democracy was short-lived, disrupted when the two generals joined forces for a military coup in October 2021. War ensued after their falling out 18 months later.

In a recent meeting of the IGAD, a consortium of East African countries, both Sudanese generals committed to “an unconditional cease-fire and resolution of the conflict through political dialogue.” The leaders also agreed to a “one-on-one meeting,” according to a statement from the bloc on Sunday. The details, including the time and place of the meeting between the generals, were not disclosed.

The toll of the conflict has been severe, with up tens of thousands of lives lost by October 2023, according to the United Nations. Activists and doctors’ groups claim that the actual number is much higher. While General Burhan attended the meeting in Djibouti, his arch nemesis General Dagalo’s whereabouts remained unknown. It was said he participated via phone.

According to AP News, Alexis Mohamed, an adviser to Djibouti’s president, stated on social media that the Sudanese generals had accepted the principle of meeting within 15 days to pave the way for confidence-building measures, ultimately leading to political talks to end the conflict.

The U.S. government, represented by Special Envoy Mike Hammer, welcomed the generals’ commitment to a cease-fire and a face-to-face meeting. The State Department called on them to “abide by these commitments and enter talks without delay.”

The Inter-Governmental Authority on Development, which includes, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Eritrea, South Sudan, Djibouti, and Uganda is actively involved in mediation efforts to end the conflict, alongside Saudi Arabia and the United States, which facilitated rounds of indirect talks between the warring parties in early November.

As the war unfolded, it initially centered in Khartoum but quickly spread to other areas, including the western region of Darfur. Over 6 million people were displaced, with 1.2 million seeking refuge in neighboring countries, according to U.N. figures. In Darfur, the conflict has evolved into ethnic violence, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Dagalo and allied Arab militias targeting supporters of the Sudanese Armed Forces led by General Burhan. Earlier this month, the U.S. State Department accused the RSF and the Sudanese military of being responsible for war crimes or crimes against humanity, or both, in Darfur. The international community seeks to end the war soon before it becomes a wider configuration that threatens the very survival of the Sudanese state.

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While the decision aims to enhance the Somali government’s capacity to combat the Islamist insurgency, restore stability, and address security concerns in a country plagued by civil war and chaos since 1991, the UNSC expressed worry about inadequate safe ammunition storage in Somalia, urging other nations to assist the Somali government in constructing, renovating, and utilizing secure ammunition depots across the country.

Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud welcomed the move, emphasizing its potential to modernize the country’s armed forces and equip them to counter threats from Al Shabaab and other adversaries. The Somalian government sees the lifting of the arms embargo as a testament to international collaboration for lasting peace, highlighting its commitment to working with the global community for a safer future.

Despite ongoing challenges, Somalia has relied on the support of African Union forces, the United States, Turkey, and other Western powers to address security threats posed by Al Shabaab and other militant groups. The recent lifting of the arms embargo reflects confidence in the Somali government’s progress and commitment to restoring peace and stability. Additionally, Somalia has taken steps toward self-reliance in security, with soldiers undergoing training in allied countries, including Turkey, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

However, some analysts caution that challenges remain in ensuring proper arms management and accountability, suggesting that the lifting of the embargo could contribute to weapon proliferation in the region. They also underscore the need for improvements in governance, human rights, and reconciliation efforts by the Somali government, emphasizing ongoing international support for the country’s political and security transition.

The Republic of Turkey has played a significant role in reconstituting the Somali National Army (SNA) by providing training, equipment, and military capabilities. The establishment of the “TURKSOM” training facility in Mogadishu and the delivery of Turkish-made weapons, including the MPT-76 battle rifle and Kirpi armored vehicles, signify Turkey’s commitment to strengthening the SNA and supporting Somalia’s security efforts.

Lifting of the arms embargo is a vote of confidence in the government of Somalia, which struggled for decades to maintain peace and security. It also comes a head of a planned drawdown and a scheduled withdrawal of African Union-led security forces which have been present in Somalia since 2007. This drawdown is supposed to be completed by December 2024.

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“The World Bank is fully committed to supporting Kenya in its journey to become an upper-middle-income country by 2030,” the statement said. “Subject to the World Bank Executive Directors approval of new operations, and to factors which may affect the bank’s lending capacity, this implies a total financial package of $12 billion over the three years.”, said the world bank statement.

Due to uncertainties regarding its ability to secure financing from financial markets before the maturity of a $2 billion Eurobond next June, Kenya has faced significant liquidity challenges. This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a staff-level agreement with Kenya, providing the country with immediate access to an additional $682 million tranche of funds and expanding its existing lending program by $938 million. World Bank Country Director Keith Hansen noted that the World Bank aimed to clarify the anticipated level of resources available to Kenya in response to recent government statements and the IMF staff consensus.

Many African countries face similar financing difficulties, exacerbated by the Covid pandemic and rising global interest rates. Neighboring Ethiopia also finds itself in a long and drawn-out negotiations multilateral financial institution as well as bilateral creditors.

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Referred to as “western Tigray” by the regional authorities of Tigray, the agriculturally fertile and strategically important area bordering Sudan was formerly part of north Gonder, which became part of the Amhara region when Ethiopia’s current constitution was ratified in 1994, under the tutelage of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The area remained a significant point of contention ever since, with underground activism seeking to reestablish Amhara identity of the region. In 2018, when TPLF lost control of the central government in Ethiopia, following mass protests, Amhara claims to “West Tigray” became louder.

In November 2020, at the outset war between the TPLF and the federal government, the area came under the control of Amhara regional forces. It currently remains under de-facto Amhara administration.

Constitutional arguments for the return of these lands back to Tigray have been raised, however Ethiopia’s constitution does not explicitly refer to “West Tigray.” The constitution does not demarcate regional boundaries in Ethiopia. The issue is therefore complex, and not readily addressed by the constitution, which primarily outlines the structure of the federal system, the rights of regions, and other fundamental principles of governance.

The Amhara largely view the area as having been forcibly annexed by the TPLF dominated government in the early 1990s.  Accordingly, the nearly 30 years of occupation led to the expulsion and deaths of hundreds of thousands of Amhara, resulting in allegations of ethnic cleansing. “This was an involuntary demographic reengineering by the TPLF to eliminate us from in the region”, says Dejene Maru, a senior security official under the present Amhara administration of Welkait.

Authorities in Tigray complain the current Amhara governors have expelled hundreds of thousands identifying with Tigray. Human Right Watch has made similar allegations. The Tigray interim regional government also claims the CoHA guarantees their return and the reconstitution of “West Tigray”. In May of this year, protests in Tigray demanded the withdrawal of Amhara forces from “West Tigray”. In response demonstration affirming Amhara identity of the region were held in Amhara, including in the contested areas.

Ethiopia’s constitution, which as mentioned above, does not demarcate territorial boundaries, nonetheless provides referendum as a means of resting territorial disagreements between regions and populations.

On occasion of the CoHA’s anniversary, a federal government statement said, “a final determination of the fate of these areas will be made via a referendum”. However, continued disagreements and clashes in Ethiopia have overshadowed legal proceedings. The statement highlighted the forthcoming referendum as the means to make a decisive resolution concerning these regions. However, given the intricacies of the issue, a referendum will not take place any time soon.

In a statement released on Friday, the TPLF expressed that the CoHA had not been fully put into practice, primarily due to the large number of people who are still displaced from “West Tigray” and the presence of Amhara forces in the region.

In August 2023 widespread clashes erupted in Amhara in connection with a plan to integrate regional paramilitary groups into the federal military and police. Local militias, known as Fano, briefly took control of towns and cities in the region. Perception that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed might consider returning disputed territories to Tigray played a role in intensifying the violence, which has now evolved into a rural insurgency.

According to the United Nations, at least 183 individuals lost their lives in the first month of the conflict in Amhara. That number has since grown. Ethiopia’s human rights commission reported that numerous civilians had been killed in airstrikes and extrajudicial actions. Ethiopia’s government denied these accusations, asserting that it does not target civilians and is working to reinstate law and order in the region.

Given the layered and complex set of contentions in Ethiopia, the government has proposed National Dialogue to address grievances. Currently the Commission for National Dialogue is working towards this goal. This process however is slow and methodical, one that is not headline grabbing. It is also fraught with many challenges, particularly given continued clashes. Yet, if successful it could be a paradigm shift for the entire federal and constitutional system of governance in Ethiopia.

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Speaking to members of parliament earlier this month, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed discussed the “the vital significance of the Red Sea” to his nation’s future. This declaration came after an extended period of rumor and conjecture, spanning weeks, if not months, regarding Addis Ababa’s pursuit of port access through its littoral neighbors to the east. A fuller context of this latest development was provided in a recent report by Abren.

Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa with approximately 120 million residents, lacks direct access to the Red Sea, a major global trade thoroughfare. In contrast, neighboring countries of Eritrea, Djibouti and the de facto state of Somaliland enjoy excess capacity maritime access relative to their economies.

While Prime Minister Abiy mentioned his government had no intentions of interfering by force or coercion, his earlier comments raised concerns among some observers and neighboring states, who believed his words had the potential to raise tensions, particularly with neighboring Eritrea, which maintained very close ties to Ethiopia since a peace agreement between the two was reached in 2018.

In what appears to be reassurance, while speaking at “Defense Forces Day” held in Addis Ababa yesterday, Abiy emphasizing stated “Ethiopia has never initiated hostilities against any other country and has no intentions of doing so”. He went on to state that Ethiopia’s recent request for sea access should not be interpreted as a precursor to military conflict.

Reconciliation with Eritrea back in 2018 earned PM Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize. However, his government’s military involvement to quell an insurrection by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) resulted in civilian deaths and interrupted relations with the U.S. While there has been no clear scientifically verifiable count of the death toll, most mainstream news outlets reported the Tigray conflict resulted in the loss of several hundreds thousand lives.

In the 1950s Ethiopia gained access to the Red Sea as Eritrea, a former Italian colony was federated with Ethiopia by the UN, a move that was supported by the United States and Britain. However, Ethiopia’s monarchy proceeded to gradually and forcibly annex Eritrea, incorporating it into the Ethiopian empire despite significant protestations. After thirty years of fighting for its independence, Eritrea officially became a sovereign nation in 1993. It maintained relatively stable relations with Ethiopia, which continued to freely use the port of Assab until a 1998 border war between the two ended that engagement. Currently Ethiopia depends on the port of Djibouti for almost all of its maritime trade.

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Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation has announced that the upcoming round of talks will take place in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.

Previous negotiations held in August, which had been on hold since April 2021, did not yield any substantial progress. Subsequently, another round of talks took place in Addis Ababa in September, also concluding without reaching a resolution to the dispute.

Ethiopia’s Water and Irrigation Ministry stated the country’s position remained unchanged. Chief negotiator for Ethiopia, Sileshi Bekele, who is also ambassador to the United States, stated, “there has been limited progress in our talks so far, and we await the next round of negotiations in December”.

Between the talks in August and September, Addis Ababa announced the completion of the fourth filling of the dam’s 74 cubic-kilometer reservoir. This milestone achievement means the dam is now near completion.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, celebrated this accomplishment, noting that it was achieved “despite external pressure,” as he conveyed on the platform formerly known as Twitter, now referred to as platform X.

During the summer, Prime Minister Abiy and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi agreed to resume negotiations regarding the dam, with the aim of reaching a binding agreement on both its filling and operation.

Egypt has consistently emphasized the need for Ethiopia to enter into a binding agreement governing the operation and filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renascence Dam. Conversely, Ethiopia has maintained that it is willing to enter into agreement that considers its rightful share of the Nile, which had been denied by an unfair status quo prevailing for more than half a century.

Egypt is concerned that the dam’s construction could diminish its share of the Nile’s waters, potentially leading to the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in its agricultural sector. This could disrupt the country’s delicate food balance at a time of rising prices and rapid population growth.

Ethiopia, on the other hand, argues that it has the legitimate right to construct the hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile, which originates in Lake Tana, as this tributary contributes over 85 percent of the Nile’s waters. In addition, Ethiopia’s growing economy and population will require significant investment in energy production, of which hydropower is expect to be central.

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In a significant development this July 2023, Ethiopia introduced a groundbreaking legal framework known as the Agricultural Production Contract Proclamation No. 1289/2023, hereafter referred to as “the Proclamation,” aimed at regulating agricultural production contracts. This legislative milestone comes as a response to perceived shortcomings in existing legislation, particularly the 1960 Civil Code, which lacked comprehensive coverage of matters pertaining to agricultural contracts. The Proclamation is designed to specifically govern agreements between contractors and producers in the context of supplying agricultural produce. A comprehensive report by Aman & Partners, a leading corporate legal service provider in Ethiopia, sheds light on the key takeaways from this legislative initiative:

1. Categorization of Contracts: The Proclamation categorizes contracts into four distinct types: Out-grower, Centralized, Multipartite, and Intermediary. Each category serves a unique purpose in the realm of contract farming.
2. Rights and Obligations: The Proclamation delineates the rights and obligations of both contracting parties, placing emphasis on the necessity for contractors to be registered and licensed. It allows contractors to visit farms and facilitates producers in receiving technical training from contractors.
3. Written Contracts: All agricultural production contracts are mandated to be in writing and must incorporate the working language of the regional state, ensuring transparency and compliance.
4. Quality and Quantity: The Proclamation addresses issues concerning the quantity and quality of agricultural produce. It establishes standards for measurement, quality verification mechanisms, as well as packaging and labeling standards.
5. Input Supply: The legislation outlines rules for the supply of inputs, whether by the contractor or the producer, and ensures that input prices are reasonable when compared to local market rates.
6. Price Clarity: Contracts should specify the total/unit price of agricultural produce, production costs, and provide details about price revisions due to quality changes, which are crucial for financial planning.
7. Force Majeure: The Proclamation expands the definition of force majeure to cover unforeseeable circumstances or events beyond the control of the contracting parties, including instances like producer illness or disease outbreaks. It offers guidelines for addressing these situations.
8. Dispute Resolution: In cases of disputes, the Proclamation recommends a sequence of negotiation, mediation, and arbitration, with legal action as a last resort. However, it leaves certain aspects of this process to be clarified through practical implementation.
9. Subsidiary Laws: The Proclamation alludes to forthcoming subsidiary laws that will delve into details such as licensing requirements and incentives for participants in contract farming. Stakeholders in the industry should closely monitor these developments.

This legislative advancement marks a significant step in regulating the agricultural sector and ensuring fair and transparent practices in contract farming within Ethiopia. A move that aims to revitalize a sector that remained stagnant for a long time.

For an in-depth exploration of the specifics mentioned above, read the full report

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The scale of the Lapsset project is nothing short of monumental, with an estimated cost of $13.8 billion, surpassing Kenya’s other significant rail project, the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) line connecting Mombasa and Nairobi. Despite its size, the Lapsset Authority has expressed a high degree of confidence in the project’s viability, citing an expected internal rate of return exceeding 12%. The Lapsset authority had informed Bloomberg of its plans last month.

To move forward with this ambitious endeavor, Kenya is actively seeking financial support, with a request for $9 million from the African Union Infrastructure Fund. These funds would be allocated towards conducting comprehensive feasibility studies to assess both the technical and economic feasibility of the proposed railway line.

Kenyan Transport Minister Kipchumba Murkomen has indicated his commitment to collaborating with Ethiopian counterparts to secure joint funding for the Lapsset project. This cooperative effort follows a recent agreement between Kenya and Uganda to collectively raise $6 billion for the expansion of the SGR from Naivasha in Kenya to the Ugandan capital, Kampala.

In summary, Lapsset represents a substantial undertaking with the potential to revolutionize transportation connectivity in East Africa. The project’s high expected return on investment and ongoing efforts to secure funding demonstrate a strong commitment to its realization and the broader regional development goals it aims to achieve. Funding for the project is expected to come from an assortment of multilateral and bilateral lenders including the African Development Bank and potentially the BRICS New Development Bank.

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The Mayor previously hosted a delegation led by Deputy Mayor Lee Chang from Chuncheon City in Addis Ababa.  The Mayor is following up on earlier discussions to fortify the historical links that already exist and form alliances to strengthen the relationship in areas that would be even more beneficial to both cities.

The diplomatic hub, Addis Ababa is undergoing extensive transformation since the leadership embarked on a strategic plan. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, with the Mayor’s office is executing the vision set out, by bolstering twin city partnerships that will secure projects to elevate the standard of the city. The transformation of the city into a modern metropolis with the aim to develop it into a smart city will be a game changer for Africa’s capital.

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As African states, including Ethiopia, participate in the Russia-Africa leaders summit in St. Petersburg, the World Bank and Ethiopia’s Ministry of Finance finalized a crucial agreement.

$350 million will be provided as grant, while the remaining $50 million will be extended as a loan, requiring repayment in due course. Ethiopia’s Finance Ministry, however, did not provide specific details about any political, economic, or cultural conditions attached to the financial arrangement.

The signing ceremony took place virtually, with Finance Minister Ahmed Shide, and Mr. Ousmane Dione, World Bank Country Director for Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan, representing their respective entities. According to an update published on the Ministry’s website on Thursday, Ethiopia stands to receive $400 million from the World Bank through this agreement.

The package incorporates elements of “Program for Results (PforR)” and “Investment Project Financing (IPF).” The “PforR” component aims to reinforce basic service delivery systems, mitigate crises’ impact, enhance learning outcomes, and address stunting in selected Woredas (administrative divisions).

Accordingly, funding will go to towards youth education and nutrition services for young adults, while strengthening service delivery and accountability in regions affected by conflicts, droughts, and high levels of refugees.

On the other hand, the “IPF” portion of the funds is allocated for providing technical assistance and capacity building support, which will strengthen systems and enhance the delivery of quality services.

This is a boost to Ethiopia’s economy aiming to recover from post war conflict, where education, nutrition and health have been negatively impacted. The country is currently in the middle of ongoing negotiations to security a much bigger funding program from the IMF.

The timing of this funding has spawned speculators, who assume the decision to finance Ethiopia amid the Russia-Africa Summit is meant to pull the country away from Russian influence.

In addition, Ethiopia anticipates a two-day working visit from World Bank President Ajay Banga starting on July 31. His visit will primarily focus on identifying opportunities for job creation among the country’s young population and women.

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