The construction of the Crimean Bridge by Russia exacerbated the dispute, as Ukraine and its western backers discredited the referendum leading up to the annexation of Crimea. The recent attack by Ukraine on the bridge prompted a military counter-attack by Russia on the port city of Odessa, a major Ukrainian Black Sea port and a crucial gateway to international trade through the Black Sea, particularly for grains that feed millions of people around the world. Odessa, being located at the strategic shores of the black sea, is also home to one of the two major active naval bases of the Ukrainian Navy, the Western Naval Base.

Alongside with other Ukrainian Black Sea ports, Odessa was blockaded after Russia launched its special military operation last year. Russia only cleared access to three seaports last July under a deal that was brokered by the UN and Turkey as the blockade restricted international grain supplies and resulted in a serious blow to global food crisis. Such a deal is what Zelenskyy mentioned as the “Black Sea Grain Initiative” in his telephone call with Abiy Ahmed. And it has now apparently come to an end with Russia’s resumption of military operations against Odessa.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative and Global Food Security: Particular Focus on Africa

The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) entered in July 2022, as an agreement among Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations has been instrumental in ensuring the safe transportation of grains and foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports. This initiative has facilitated the delivery of hundreds of millions of tons of grains to the global market, mitigating the impact of the global food crisis that was feared at the onset of the conflict. Given that Ukraine is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, barley, and corn, and both Russia and Ukraine contribute significantly to global wheat and vegetable/seed oil exports, the potential disruption of agricultural imports and exports amid the end of the BSGI and renewed blockades of Black Sea Ports poses a serious threat to global food security.

According to recent UN estimates, approximately 345 million people across 82 countries are expected to face food shortages unless the BSGI is resumed and military operations targeting the Black Sea routes are halted. The crisis also extends to Africa, where the price of wheat alone has surged by 45% since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to the African Development Bank. Former World Food Program’s director, David Beasley, has warned such a global food crisis could lead to famine and destabilization, affecting not just Africa, but also regions worldwide.

Ethiopia, facing its own food crisis exacerbated by various factors, such as armed conflict, internal displacement, locust swarms, economic challenges and climate change, is particularly vulnerable to any further blockade of the Black Sea Ports. These ports play a vital role in facilitating the import of food and grains that are essential for Ethiopia’s food security. Any disruption in the flow of these supplies would have devastating consequences, leaving millions of people at risk of hunger and malnutrition. During the telephone conversation with Abiy, Zelenskyy noted that Ukraine had delivered almost 300 thousand tons of food to Ethiopia only under the Black Sea Grain Initiative and another 90 thousand tons of grain under the “Grain from Ukraine Humanitarian Initiative”.

As Ethiopia engages in diplomatic relations with Ukraine, it is crucial to prioritize the resumption of the BSGI and maintain food trade to address the pressing food crisis and safeguard the well-being of its population. However, Ethiopia must exercise caution and carefully evaluate President Zelenskyy’s ambition for “strong bilateral relations with African Countries” and to secure the voices of Ethiopia, Africa and the African Union towards Ukraine’s best interest.

The country should be mindful of the geopolitical dynamics involved, considering that Ethiopia and many other African nations and the African Union itself have maintained a largely neutral stance on the conflict since the start of the war, as some acted passively and openly supportive of Russia. Russia and many African nations, including Ethiopia, have a long history of backing each other in times of diplomatic pressure or threats of economic sanctions or military interventions by the global north. Thus, as Russia already established a reliable bilateral relations with most African nations, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy is striving to secure the diplomatic backing of African nations on international and regional platforms. Hence both countries embark on tours to the continent, including Ethiopia, as they seek to bolster relations and secure Africa’s support in the ongoing war.

Ethiopia’s Diplomatic Engagements with Russia & Ukraine: Challenges & Key Considerations

Ethiopia’s status as a regional powerhouse, an emerging economy, and a rising military power in the Horn of Africa, combined with its role as the diplomatic capital of Africa and home to the African Union, makes it a significant player on the African continent and a crucial partner for various countries worldwide. It is also one of Russia’s major partners in Africa – a continent that has been a region of significant diplomatic influence for Russia – a major global power. Therefore, Kyiv’s unprecedented diplomatic engagement with Addis Ababa and President Zelenskyy’s vision of further diplomatic engagement and cooperation, not only with Ethiopia but with the entire African continent, is likely to raise concerns in the Kremlin.

Ethiopia now finds itself in a challenging position, at the center of a diplomatic heatwave, with Ukraine proposing trade/food aid diplomacy and security cooperation, while Russia, a major power and historical ally, observes Ethiopia’s moves with great caution. It is also crucial to consider that Ukraine’s diplomatic approach comes at a time when Ethiopia is awaiting a decision on its potential membership in BRICS, a group of major emerging economies.

Additionally, Russia is strengthening its defense cooperation with Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea, further influencing the diplomatic landscape in the region. Given these complex circumstances, Ethiopia must carefully weigh its options and consider the potential consequences of its diplomatic choices. The path Ethiopia chooses to follow will not only shape its diplomatic relations but also have far-reaching effects on its regional influence, trade partnerships, and security cooperations. Strategic consideration of the following factors will be vital in ensuring Ethiopia’s position as a regional powerhouse and its role in the emerging multilateral global order:

• How its decision in dealing with Ukraine’s overtures and Russia’s watchful eyes impact its aspirations for BRICS membership and its standing in the emerging multilateral global order;
• What the potential implications of its diplomatic engagement with Ukraine can be for its existing defense cooperation and historical partnership with Russia;
• How it can strike a delicate balance between fostering relationships with both Russia and Ukraine while safeguarding its own national interests and maintaining its diplomatic integrity;
• What role it can play in regional and global geopolitics, and how its diplomatic engagements align with its strategic objectives and its commitments to its allies; and
• What value can Ethiopia add to the African Peace Mission, a delegation of African leaders led by South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa that met with both Russian and Ukrainian leaders to discuss conflict resolution and continued grain exports and the shipment of Russian fertilizers to help alleviate food insecurity on the continent and beyond.

These are important points that call for carefully measured diplomatic approaches that can intelligibly resolve the complex dynamics of the situation. Ethiopia, like any country navigating complex diplomatic waters, should approach its relations with Ukraine with strategic caution. Diplomacy in this context requires careful consideration and tact to navigate geopolitical sensitivities in the region, encompassing both Europe & Asia-pacific, as well as in global politics.

Being mindful of the broader geopolitical context and the implications of its diplomatic engagement with Zelenskyy will help steer clear of provocative actions or statements that could lead to diplomatic complexities or controversies with either nation or their allies. Maintaining open, regular, and transparent communication with Russia, Ukraine and all stakeholders will also be essential in addressing any concerns, misunderstandings/misperceptions or diplomatic tensions.

Most importantly, Ethiopia should maintain a non-aligned foreign policy position and strategically balance its interests while pursuing diplomatic initiatives with Ukraine. This helps to effectively navigate this delicate situation and avoid any actions that may overtly antagonize Russia. Exploring economic opportunities and identifying areas of shared interests and cooperation will also be instrumental in maintaining balanced and constructive long-term vision for Ethiopia’s diplomatic relations with both countries. Furthermore, Ethiopia should actively participate in multilateral/international forums and organizations, such as the United Nations and the African Union, to foster dialogue and cooperation and enhance its diplomatic standing. Consulting with regional and international partners will also provide valuable insights into the complexities of the situation and aid in making informed decisions.

However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the diplomatic situation is fluid, and the dynamics between Russia and Ukraine can change rapidly. Therefore, Ethiopia must engage proactively, remain flexible and adaptable, continuously monitor developments, and adjust its approach accordingly to promote constructive relations with both countries.

As Ethiopia moves forward, a well-calibrated, thoughtful and pragmatic diplomatic approach is instrumental in navigating the diplomatic waters with both Russia and Ukraine, maintaining stability in the region and preserving its role as a player in the emerging multipolar global order. In doing so, it should set clear priorities and adhere to its national interests, strategic goals and core values while exploring the ever-evolving geopolitical landscape to prevent any unintended consequences. Ethiopia should also exploit the opportunity to enhance its standing in the international community and attract support from like-minded nations that embrace multilateralism and cooperative engagement with in regional and international organizations to facilitate partnerships and collaboration in addressing such a shared challenge.

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Charges against the former minister and prominent rival of late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi were politically motivated. Subsequently, in the year 2002 her decision to acquit the Mr. Seye Abraha was overturned by authorities and resulted in her removal from the bench. Mr. Seye would spend the next six years in prison. According to her personal testimony, this experience was one of the factors that pushed her towards politics, initially running as an independent candidate, and later as a key opposition leader in the notable 2005 Ethiopian election, which was rigged by the ruling EPRDF party. Following violent crackdowns by the government, she was forced to flee the country few years later.

Besides her political experience, Birtukan has built reputation for legal and intellectual rigger, professional integrity and independence. It will be difficult to find a better candidate to lead the NEBE, an institution she was able to reform despite its history of being a tool for the ruling party. Her appointment as head of the NEBE was indeed recognized as a key first step towards democratic transition in Ethiopia. Despite disagreement by some MPs and political figures about her impartiality given her role in opposition politics, parliament overwhelmingly approved her nomination.

Prior to Birukan’s appointment, the NEBE had remained a controversial body – overturning the 2005 election results, blatantly declaring a 98% and a 100% victory for the ruling EPRDF party in the 2010 & 2015 elections, respectively. The challenge of reforming the NEBE and building public trust in its impartiality and efficiency was an enormous undertaking. In her appointment, Birtukan stated her vision to build a “transparent and trustworthy” institution, a promise which many believed she did her best to deliver despite the gravity of the challenges.

Birtukan guided the NEBE through a difficult period, marked by what can only be regarded a an unconstitutional insurrection by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which staged unlawful regional elections in the northern Tigray region on September 8, 2020. This act of defiance would later precipitate conflict with authorities in the Tigray region. Despite complicating factors due to continued instability in the country, in June 2021 NEBE oversaw national elections that were relatively the most open in Ethiopia’s history, according to the preliminary report by the African Union election observation mission.

Throughout 2022 and 2023, the NEBE oversaw tense regional referendums in the southern districts, with lasting impacts on the country’s democratic and constitutional future. in spite of opposition to these referendums, they were able to resolve outstanding political deadlocks democratically, and more importantly peacefully.

It is quite the turn of history to see Birtukan as head on the NEBE. The one time victim of the state-captured NEBE herself (for which she and many others were jailed, persecuted, sentenced to death and exiled in the early 2000s), Birtukan primarily strived to bring independence, and a backbone to an institution that long withered under party control. Nonetheless, she was not spared fierce criticisms by those who have objected:

• the process of re-registration for previously outlawed parties;
• the permits or refusals of local referendums;
• the dismemberment of the EPRDF and reregistration as a new political party (Prosperity Party) in the middle of the five years electoral cycle;
• the invalidation of TPLF’s unauthorized regional election and its subsequent loss of legal personality (following the parliamentary designation of TPLF as a terrorist group); and
• the board’s refusal to recognize TPLF as a political party post the Pretoria Peace Agreement.

And now that she has officially resigned, there has been no hint as to who is proposed to replace Birtukan as the chairperson of NEBE. But one can tell for sure – finding a credible replacement will present a challenge for Prime Minister Abiy’s government.

The first practical challenge associated with replacing Birtukan is related to experience/expertise, institutional knowledge and technical competence. Her political experience and understanding of the law has uniquely allowed Birtukan to navigate the many nuances of politics in Ethiopia. This has been a great asset to both the board and the nation. Added to that, she had accumulated a remarkable experience and expertise particularly in organizing and overseeing elections, referendums and related tasks while serving as the head of the NEBE.

Birtukan’s departure exposes the board to a series of practical challenges in the effort to maintain the public trust she managed to build. It shouldn’t come as a shock if questions regarding the board’s impartiality and independence resurface after her departure. She certainly has raised the bar higher for her replacement, who will be expected to be as impartial, credible and competent by stakeholders – including international observers.

The new chairperson will no doubt face significant challenge in gaining the same level of public trust – especially given the complexity of TPLF’s reregistration as a political party, upcoming national remedial elections, unceasing requests for local referendum, and the potential referendum on constitutional amendment – if by any chance such initiative is to be presented to and be approved by the House of People’s Representative & House of Federation.

Moreover, NEBE being an important institution under ongoing reforms, change of leadership at this stage is an unfortunate disruption to its institutional stability and continuity. Birtukan’s departure will lead to a temporary period of readjustment and potential delays in decision-making and overall performances until a replacement is put in place, and the new chairperson manages to fully understand the intricate institutional, culture & bureaucracy of the board. Thus, her replacement and the process of transition to a new leadership should be cautiously planned & managed to mitigate the effects of any disruption of pending or planned voting procedures (if any) and reform initiatives by the NEBE.

Both the Prime Minister and the House of People’s Representatives are expected to tread carefully and deliberately on the political sensitivities and considerations of replacing the key figure at the NEBE – especially in a political environment, where election results are frequently contested. Both the candidate (to replace Birtukan) and the selection process should uphold the principles of fairness, transparency, inclusivity and neutrality – considering the importance of the role and the need to maintain the integrity and credibility of the board in Ethiopia’s democratic process — a process that has never been void of challenges and constant disruptions. That said, replacing Birtukan Midekssa is an uphill battle and her replacement is set to determine Ethiopia’s democratic future.

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